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Record W3015976133 · doi:10.1101/2020.04.06.20055988

ESTIMATING COVID-19 INFECTIONS IN HOSPITAL WORKERS IN THE UNITED STATES

2020· preprint· en· W3015976133 on OpenAlexaff
Junaid Razzak, Junaid A. Bhatti, Ramzan Tahir, Omrana Pasha

Bibliographic record

VenuemedRxiv · 2020
Typepreprint
Languageen
FieldMedicine
TopicInfection Control and Ventilation
Canadian institutionsApotex (Canada)
Fundersnot available
KeywordsPersonal protective equipmentMedicinePandemicCoronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)Confidence intervalHealth careDemographySevere acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2)Emergency medicineEnvironmental healthInternal medicineInfectious disease (medical specialty)Disease

Abstract

fetched live from OpenAlex

ABSTRACT Objective We estimated that how many hospital workers in the United States (US) might get infected or die in the COVID-19 pandemic. We also estimated the impact of personal protective equipment (PPE) and age restrictions on these estimates. Methods Our secondary analyses estimated hospital worker infections in the US based on health worker infection and death rates per 100 deaths from COVID-19 in Hubei and Italy. We used Monte Carlo simulations to compute point estimates with 95% confidence intervals for hospital worker infections in the US based on the two scenarios. We computed potential decrease in infections if the PPE were available only to those involved in direct care of COVID-19 patients (∼ 30%) and if workers aged ≥ 60 years are restricted from patient care. Estimates were adjusted for hospital workers per bed in the US compared to China and Italy. Results The hospital worker infections per 100 deaths were 108.2 in Hubei and 94.1 in Italy. Based on Hubei scenario, we estimated that about 53,640 US hospital workers (95% CI: 43,160 to 62,251) might get infected from COVID-19. The Italian scenario suggested 53,097 US hospital worker (95% CI: 37,133 to 69,003) might get infected during the pandemic. Availability of PPE to high-risk workers could reduce counts to 28,100 (95% CI: 23,048 to 33,242) considering Hubei and to 28,354 (95% CI: 19,829 to 36,848) considering Italy. Restricting hospital workers aged ≥ 60 years from direct patient care reduced counts to 1,985 (95% CI: 1,627 to 2,347) considering Hubei and to 2,002 (95% CI: 1,400 to 2,602) considering the Italian scenario. Conclusion We estimated significant burden of illness due to COVID-19 if no strategies are adopted. Making PPE available to all hospital workers and reducing exposure of hospital workers above the age of 60 could have significant reductions in hospital worker infections. VISUAL ABSTRACT Figure 1. Estimated number of COVID-19 related infections among healthcare workers in the United States based on Hubei and Italian scenarios

Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.

How this classification was reachedexpand

Full frame distilled prediction

Teacher imitation

Not calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.

metaresearch head score (Codex)0.001
metaresearch head score (Gemma)0.002
Version: codex-gemma-dda1882f352aValidation status: machine_predicted_unvalidated
Candidate categoriesnone
Consensus categoriesnone
DomainCandidate signal: none · Consensus signal: none
Study designCandidate signal: Observational · Consensus signal: Observational
GenreCandidate signal: Empirical · Consensus signal: Empirical
Teacher disagreement score0.251
Threshold uncertainty score0.537

Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category

CategoryCodexGemma
Metaresearch0.0010.002
Meta-epidemiology (narrow)0.0000.000
Meta-epidemiology (broad)0.0000.000
Bibliometrics0.0000.001
Science and technology studies0.0000.000
Scholarly communication0.0000.000
Open science0.0000.000
Research integrity0.0000.001
Insufficient payload (model declined to judge)0.0000.000

Machine scores (provisional)

The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.

Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.

Opus teacher head0.034
GPT teacher head0.328
Teacher spread0.294 · how far apart the two teachers sit on this one work
Validation statusscore_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it

Classification

machine, unvalidated

Machine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.

The models applied no category: nothing in the taxonomy fit this work.
Study designObservational
Domainnot available
GenreEmpirical

How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".

Quick stats

Citations2
Published2020
Admission routes1
Has abstractyes

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