A Short-Term Output Power Prediction Model of Wind Power Based on Deep Learning of Grouped Time Series
Bibliographic record
Abstract
The output power prediction of wind power plants is an important guarantee to improve the utilization rate of wind energy and reduce wind curtailment. However, due to the strong randomness of wind energy, the ultra-short-term prediction accuracy of wind power output is poor. In view of the problem above, a prediction model based on deep learning of grouped time series (LW-CLSTM) was proposed in this paper. Based on this model, the authors attempted to explore a prediction method of wind power output. For this, first the multivariate data of wind power was fused, cleaned, dimension-reduced, and standardized, and the time period characteristics of the output power itself were extracted. Afterwards, it proposes a time sliding window (TSW) algorithm, and constructs a neural network input data set. Then a deep neural network prediction model combining the Convolutional Neutral Network (CNN) and Long-Short Term Memory (LSTM) was established, and the regression evaluation criteria for output power forecast accuracy in wind power production were designed, to compare the proposed model with four other prediction models. Finally, the experiments on the TensorFlow platform using real data show that this model has better prediction accuracy than the other four models, reaching a prediction accuracy rate of 92.5%, which verified the effectiveness of this prediction method.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".