The decline in the naturalization rate among recent immigrants in Canada: Policy changes and other possible explanations
Why this work is in the frame
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract The naturalization rate of immigrants is jointly affected by immigrant characteristics, economic, and political circumstances in the source country and government policies in the destination country. This article focuses on the effect of altering government policies in the destination country, using legislative and regulatory changes introduced in Canada over the 2006–16 period as a test case. We hypothesize that the least advantaged immigrants would be most affected by more restrictive policies. The observed large decline in the naturalization rate among immigrants with low family income, low proficiency in official languages, and low educational levels is consistent with significant policy impacts. Furthermore, the general decline started before the introduction of the new policies, and the decline was particularly large among immigrants from Eastern Asia. This suggests that other factors such as globalization and changes in the socioeconomic environment of some source countries also played a role.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it