The Association Between State-Level Racial Attitudes Assessed From Twitter Data and Adverse Birth Outcomes: Observational Study
Bibliographic record
Abstract
BACKGROUND: In the United States, racial disparities in birth outcomes persist and have been widening. Interpersonal and structural racism are leading explanations for the continuing racial disparities in birth outcomes, but research to confirm the role of racism and evaluate trends in the impact of racism on health outcomes has been hampered by the challenge of measuring racism. Most research on discrimination relies on self-reported experiences of discrimination, and few studies have examined racial attitudes and bias at the US national level. OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to investigate the associations between state-level Twitter-derived sentiments related to racial or ethnic minorities and birth outcomes. METHODS: We utilized Twitter's Streaming application programming interface to collect 26,027,740 tweets from June 2015 to December 2017, containing at least one race-related term. Sentiment analysis was performed using support vector machine, a supervised machine learning model. We constructed overall indicators of sentiment toward minorities and sentiment toward race-specific groups. For each year, state-level Twitter-derived sentiment data were merged with birth data for that year. The study participants were women who had singleton births with no congenital abnormalities from 2015 to 2017 and for whom data were available on gestational age (n=9,988,030) or birth weight (n=9,985,402). The main outcomes were low birth weight (birth weight ≤2499 g) and preterm birth (gestational age <37 weeks). We estimated the incidence ratios controlling for individual-level maternal characteristics (sociodemographics, prenatal care, and health behaviors) and state-level demographics, using log binomial regression models. RESULTS: The accuracy for identifying negative sentiments on comparing the machine learning model to manually labeled tweets was 91%. Mothers living in states in the highest tertile for negative sentiment tweets referencing racial or ethnic minorities had greater incidences of low birth weight (8% greater, 95% CI 4%-13%) and preterm birth (8% greater, 95% CI 0%-14%) compared with mothers living in states in the lowest tertile. More negative tweets referencing minorities were associated with adverse birth outcomes in the total population, including non-Hispanic white people and racial or ethnic minorities. In stratified subgroup analyses, more negative tweets referencing specific racial or ethnic minority groups (black people, Middle Eastern people, and Muslims) were associated with poor birth outcomes for black people and minorities. CONCLUSIONS: A negative social context related to race was associated with poor birth outcomes for racial or ethnic minorities, as well as non-Hispanic white people.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.009 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".