Powered flight potential approached by wide range of close avian relatives but achieved selectively
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract Evolution of birds from non-flying theropod dinosaurs is a classic evolutionary transition, but a deeper understanding of early flight has been frustrated by disagreement on the relationships between birds (Avialae) and their closest theropod relatives. We address this through a larger, more resolved evolutionary hypothesis produced by a novel automated analysis pipeline tailored for large morphological datasets. We corroborate the grouping of dromaeosaurids + troodontids (Deinonychosauria) as the sister taxon to birds (Paraves), as well as the recovery of Anchiornithidae as basalmost avialans. Using these phylogenetic results and available data for vaned feathered paravians, maximum and minimum estimates of wing loading and specific lift calculated using ancestral state reconstruction analysis are used as proxies for the potential for powered flight through this transition. We found a broad range of paravian ancestors with estimates approaching values that are indicative of powered flight potential. This suggests that prior to the evolution of flight there was a wider extent of experimentation with wing-assisted locomotion among paravians than previously appreciated. We recovered wing loading and specific lift estimates indicating the potential for powered flight among fossil birds as well as unenlagiine and microraptorine dromaeosaurids. In the context of our phylogeny and of Mesozoic palaeogeography, our results suggest that the potential for powered flight originated three or more times from a broad range of ancestors already nearing this potential, providing a well-supported scenario for the origin of theropod flight to further explore.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".