A graphical causal model for resolving species identity effects and biodiversity–ecosystem function correlations
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Identifying and clearly communicating the drivers of ecosystem function is a crucially important goal for both basic and applied ecology. This has proven difficult because the putative causes (e.g., environment, species identity, biodiversity, and functional traits) are numerous and correlated. The problem is exacerbated by a lack of a formal framework for unambiguously relating theoretical language to precise, quantitative expressions of that language. Using a formal framework for the graphical expression of complex causal hypotheses, we developed a causal diagram of the concepts required to comprehensively test whether hypothesized sets of functional traits mediate the relationship between community structure and ecosystem function. We then used causal analysis, simulations, and field data to develop and test analytical strategies for understanding how community structure influences ecosystem functions via functional traits. Formal causal analysis showed that biodiversity-ecosystem function correlations are noncausal associations. Using simulations, we showed how biodiversity correlations and species identity effects can arise from misspecification or incomplete mediation by functional trait composites. We also found that different types of model misspecification result in different patterns of residuals, which may be used to diagnose gaps in functional trait hypotheses. Treating the model misspecifications eliminated associations between species identity or biodiversity and ecosystem function. Finally, we provide an example of the analysis of field data to demonstrate how to use these insights to conduct a research program that has the goal of understanding the mechanistic trait relationships that link community structure to ecosystem function.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.007 | 0.024 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.003 | 0.002 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.002 | 0.004 |
| Open science | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Research integrity | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.012 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".