P129 Adolescent knee pain and risk of knee osteoarthritis 50 years later
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract Background Adolescent knee pain is a common complaint which may be due to patellar dislocation, meniscal tear, Osgood-Schlatter’s disease or patellofemoral maltracking. We studied the association of such pain with knee osteoarthritis (OA) 50 years later using a retrospective cohort design. Methods This study was based in the Hertfordshire Cohort Study, a cohort of men and women born in 1931 - 9. Participants completed a questionnaire detailing recall of adolescent knee pain, self-reported OA, demographics, lifestyle and The Western Ontario and McMaster Universities Arthritis Index (WOMAC). Clinical OA was defined based on the American College of Rheumatology (ACR) criteria and assessed at a clinical visit where knee radiographs were also taken and graded according to the methods of Kellgren and Lawrence. Results Completed data were available for 135 men and 139 women. The mean age was 78.8 (SD 2.6) years and the mean (SD) BMI was 26.3 (4.0). Two percent of men (n = 3) and 5% of women (n = 7) reported adolescent knee pain, of which 2 men and 3 women sought medical advice for their knee pain. 1 man and 2 women reported that their pain had been constant since teenage years while 2 men and 4 women reported that it was intermittent in nature. A report of adolescent knee pain was associated with an increased risk of clinical (odds ratio (OR) 5.45, p-value 0.015, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.39 - 21.36); radiological (OR 2.33, p-value 0.228, 95% CI 0.60 - 9.24) and self-report (OR 2.71, p-value 0.134, 95% CI 0.74 - 10.0) of knee OA in later life. After adjustments for age, sex and BMI, adolescent knee pain was associated with an increased risk of clinical (OR 4.80, p-value 0.047, 95% CI 1.02 - 22.53); radiological (OR 1.85, p-value 0.404, 95% CI 0.44 - 7.78); self-report (OR 3.23, p-value 0.10, 95% CI 0.80 - 12.94) although relationships were only significant for clinical knee OA. Conclusion Recalled adolescent knee pain was associated with a clinical diagnosis of knee OA in later life. The lack of association with self-report of OA suggests that this is not simply a consequence of recall bias and exploration in other data sets is now indicated. Disclosures M.A. Clynes: None. F. Laskou: None. M.H. Edwards: None. C. Cooper: None. A. Taylor: None. M. Stokes: None. E.M. Dennison: None.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.002 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.009 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".