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Record W3019205222 · doi:10.5539/ijef.v12n5p68

An Emerging Credit Risk Framework

2020· article· en· W3019205222 on OpenAlexvenueno aff
Eleftherios Vlachostergios

Bibliographic record

VenueInternational Journal of Economics and Finance · 2020
Typearticle
Languageen
FieldEconomics, Econometrics and Finance
TopicInsurance and Financial Risk Management
Canadian institutionsnot available
Fundersnot available
KeywordsBasel IICapital requirementLoanMaturity (psychological)Basel IIICredit riskActuarial scienceTime horizonGeneralizationRisk-adjusted return on capitalRisk-weighted assetEconomicsMathematicsEconometricsComputer scienceMathematical optimizationFinanceMicroeconomics

Abstract

fetched live from OpenAlex

The main result of this paper is the establishment of an analytic formula for the estimation capital requirements of an individual loan. The derived formula, may be considered as a direct analogue to the Basel risk-weight functions for credit risk, first presented in Basel II framework, with the additional advantage of utilizing a lifetime horizon, thus being suitable for IFRS9/GAAP purposes. Essentially, it bridges the gap between Basel and IFRS9 frameworks as: The 1-year horizon incorporated in the Basel PD is extended up to maturity, following the IFRS9 rationale; The notion of unexpected losses, already supplied by Basel Framework, is added to the IFRS9 logic in an analytic fashion. Going one step further, the generalization of the risk variables used in the formula, as Kumaraswamy identically distributed variables, allows for the benchmarking of the total loss of a credit portfolio, with the single knowledge of its current non-performing loans percentage. This conclusion is successfully verified against EBA stress test results for the period 2018-2020.

Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.

How this classification was reachedexpand

Full frame machine prediction

Teacher imitation

Not calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.

metaresearch head score (Codex)0.002
metaresearch head score (Gemma)0.004
Version: metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061cValidation status: machine_predicted_unvalidated
Candidate categoriesnone
Consensus categoriesnone
DomainCandidate signal: none · Consensus signal: none
Study designCandidate signal: Theoretical or conceptual · Consensus signal: Theoretical or conceptual
GenreCandidate signal: Empirical · Consensus signal: none
Teacher disagreement score0.006
Threshold uncertainty score0.021

Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)

CategoryCodexGemma
Metaresearch0.0020.004
Meta-epidemiology (narrow)0.0010.000
Meta-epidemiology (broad)0.0000.001
Bibliometrics0.0010.001
Science and technology studies0.0010.002
Scholarly communication0.0030.004
Open science0.0010.001
Research integrity0.0010.003
Insufficient payload (model declined to judge)0.0060.001

Machine scores (provisional)

The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.

Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.

Opus teacher head0.024
GPT teacher head0.241
Teacher spread0.217 · how far apart the two teachers sit on this one work
Validation statusscore_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it

Classification

machine, unvalidated

Machine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.

The models applied no category: nothing in the taxonomy fit this work.
Study designTheoretical or conceptual
Domainnot available
GenreEmpirical

How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".

Quick stats

Citations1
Published2020
Admission routes1
Has abstractyes

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