Sea Ice Retreat Contributes to Projected Increases in Extreme Arctic Ocean Surface Waves
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract The projected changes and trends in the regional annual and monthly maxima of the significant wave height (Hs) in the Arctic Ocean are studied using wave simulations derived from the CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5) climate simulations for 1979–2005 and 2081–2100 periods. Under the RCP8.5 scenario, the regional annual maximal Hs increases on average up to ∼3 cm/year, or >0.5%/year, relative to the 1986–2005 climatological value, in many Arctic areas (and up to 0.8%/year in the east side of the Arctic Ocean). While strong winds need to occur for large waves to develop, the changes in wind speed alone cannot explain the increases in the regional maximal Hs. Sea ice retreat also plays an important role by increasing fetch to promote wave growth, thereby contributing notably to the projected increase in wave height. It also contributes to increasing the probability of strong winds over the widening ice‐free waters.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".