Use of Machine Learning Techniques for Case-Detection of Varicella Zoster Using Routinely Collected Textual Ambulatory Records: Pilot Observational Study
Bibliographic record
Abstract
BACKGROUND: The detection of infectious diseases through the analysis of free text on electronic health reports (EHRs) can provide prompt and accurate background information for the implementation of preventative measures, such as advertising and monitoring the effectiveness of vaccination campaigns. OBJECTIVE: The purpose of this paper is to compare machine learning techniques in their application to EHR analysis for disease detection. METHODS: The Pedianet database was used as a data source for a real-world scenario on the identification of cases of varicella. The models' training and test sets were based on two different Italian regions' (Veneto and Sicilia) data sets of 7631 patients and 1,230,355 records, and 2347 patients and 569,926 records, respectively, for whom a gold standard of varicella diagnosis was available. Elastic-net regularized generalized linear model (GLMNet), maximum entropy (MAXENT), and LogitBoost (boosting) algorithms were implemented in a supervised environment and 5-fold cross-validated. The document-term matrix generated by the training set involves a dictionary of 1,871,532 tokens. The analysis was conducted on a subset of 29,096 tokens, corresponding to a matrix with no more than a 99% sparsity ratio. RESULTS: The highest predictive values were achieved through boosting (positive predicative value [PPV] 63.1, 95% CI 42.7-83.5 and negative predicative value [NPV] 98.8, 95% CI 98.3-99.3). GLMNet delivered superior predictive capability compared to MAXENT (PPV 24.5% and NPV 98.3% vs PPV 11.0% and NPV 98.0%). MAXENT and GLMNet predictions weakly agree with each other (agreement coefficient 1 [AC1]=0.60, 95% CI 0.58-0.62), as well as with LogitBoost (MAXENT: AC1=0.64, 95% CI 0.63-0.66 and GLMNet: AC1=0.53, 95% CI 0.51-0.55). CONCLUSIONS: Boosting has demonstrated promising performance in large-scale EHR-based infectious disease identification.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".