← Back to cohort
Mapping geographical inequalities in childhood diarrhoeal morbidity and mortality in low-income and middle-income countries, 2000–17: analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017
Robert C. Reiner, Kirsten E. Wiens, Aniruddha Deshpande, Mathew M Baumann, Paulina A Lindstedt, Brigette F. Blacker, Christopher Troeger, Lucas Earl, Sandra B. Munro, Degu Abate, Hedayat Abbastabar, Foad Abd-Allah, Ahmed Abdelalim, Ibrahim Abdollahpour, Rizwan Suliankatchi Abdulkader, Getaneh Alemu Abebe, Kedir Hussein Abegaz, Lucas Guimarães Abreu, Michael R.M. Abrigo, Manfred Accrombessi, Dilaram Acharya, Maryam Adabi, Oladimeji Adebayo, Rufus Adesoji Adedoyin, Victor Adekanmbi, Olatunji Adetokunboh, Beyene Meressa Adhena, Mohsen Afarideh, Keivan Ahmadi, Mehdi Ahmadi, Anwar E Ahmed, Muktar Beshir Ahmed, Rushdiá Ahmed, Olufemi Ajumobi, Temesgen Yihunie Akalu, A. S. Akanda, Genet Melak Alamene, Turki M Alanzi, James Albright, Jacqueline Elizabeth Alcalde‐Rabanal, Birhan Alemnew, Zewdie Aderaw Alemu, Beriwan Abdulqadir Ali, Muhammad Ali, Mehran Alijanzadeh, Vahid Alipour, Syed Mohamed Aljunid, Ali Almasi, Amir Almasi‐Hashiani, Hesham M. Al‐Mekhlafi, Khalid A Altirkawi, Nelson Alvis‐Guzmán, Nelson J Alvis-Zakzuk, Azmeraw T. Amare, Arianna Maever L. Amit, Cătălina Liliana Andrei, Mina Anjomshoa, Fereshteh Ansari, Carl Abelardo T Antonio, Ernoiz Antriyandarti, Seth Christopher Yaw Appiah, Jalal Arabloo, Olatunde Aremu, Bahram Armoon, Krishna Kumar Aryal, Afsaneh Arzani, Mohsen Asadi‐Lari, Alebachew Fasil Ashagre, Hagos Tasew Atalay, Suleman Atique, Sachin Atre, Marcel Ausloos, Leticia Ávila‐Burgos, Ashish Awasthi, Nefsu Awoke, Beatriz Paulina Ayala Quintanilla, Getinet Ayano, Martin Amogre Ayanore, Asnakew Achaw Ayele, Yared Asmare Aynalem, Samad Azari, Ebrahim Babaee, Alaa Badawi, Shankar M Bakkannavar, Senthilkumar Balakrishnan, Maciej Banach, Aleksandra Barać, Till Bärnighausen, Huda Basaleem, Quique Bassat, Mohsen Bayati, Neeraj Bedi, Masoud Behzadifar, Meysam Behzadifar, Yibeltal Alemu Bekele, Michelle L. Bell, Derrick Bennett, Dessalegn Ajema Berbada, Tina Beyranvand, Anusha Ganapati Bhat, Krittika Bhattacharyya, Suraj Bhattarai, Soumyadeep Bhaumik, Ali Bijani, Boris Bikbov, Raaj Kishore Biswas, Kassawmar Angaw Bogale, Somayeh Bohlouli, Oliver J. Brady, Nicola Luigi Bragazzi, Н. И. Брико, Andrey Briko, Sharath Burugina Nagaraja, Zahid A Butt, Ismael Campos‐Nonato, Julio César Campuzano, Rosario Cárdenas, Félix Carvalho, Franz Castro, Collins Chansa, Pranab Chatterjee, Vijay Kumar Chattu, Bal Govind Chauhan, Ken Lee Chin, Devasahayam Jesudas Christopher, Dinh‐Toi Chu, Rafael Moreira Claro, Natalie Maria Cormier, Vera Marisa Costa, Giovanni Damiani, Farah Daoud, Lalit Dandona, Rakhi Dandona, Amira Hamed Darwish, Ahmad Daryani, Jai K Das, Rajat Das Gupta, Tamirat Tesfaye Dasa, Claudio Alberto Dávila-Cervantes, Nicole Davis Weaver, Dragoş Virgil Daviţoiu, Jan‐Walter De Neve, Feleke Mekonnen Demeke, Asmamaw Demis, Gebre Teklemariam Demoz, Edgar Denova‐Gutiérrez, Kebede Deribe, Assefa Desalew, Getenet Dessie, Samath Dhamminda Dharmaratne, Preeti Dhillon, Meghnath Dhimal, Govinda Prasad Dhungana, Daniel Díaz, Eric L. Ding, Helen Derara Diro, Shirin Djalalinia, Huyen Phuc, David Teye Doku, Christiane Dolecek, Manisha Dubey, Eleonora Dubljanin, Bereket Duko Adema, Susanna Dunachie, André Rodrigues Durães, Senbagam Duraisamy, Andem Effiong, Aziz Eftekhari, Iman El Sayed, Maysaa El Sayed Zaki, Maha El Tantawi, Demelash Abewa Elemineh, Shaimaa I El-Jaafary, Hajer Elkout, Aisha Elsharkawy, Shymaa Enany, Aklilu Endalamfaw, Daniel Adane Endalew, Sharareh Eskandarieh, Alireza Esteghamati, Arash Etemadi, Tamer H. Farag, Emerito Jose A Faraon, Mohammad Fareed, Roghiyeh Faridnia, Andrea Farioli, André Faro, Hossein Farzam, Ali Akbar Fazaeli, Mehdi Fazlzadeh, Netsanet Fentahun, Seyed‐Mohammad Fereshtehnejad, Eduarda Fernandes, Irina Filip, Florian Fischer, Masoud Foroutan, Joel M Francis, Richard C. Franklin, Joseph Frostad, Takeshi Fukumoto, Kidane Tadesse Gebremariam, Ketema Bizuwork Gebremedhin, Gebreamlak Gebremedhn Gebremeskel, Getnet Gedefaw, Yilma Chisha Dea Geramo, Birhanu Geta, Kebede Embaye Gezae, Ahmad Ghashghaee, Fariba Ghassemi, Paramjit Gill, Ibrahim Ginawi, Srinivas Goli, Nelson G. M. Gomes, Sameer Vali Gopalani, Bárbara Niegia Garcia de Goulart, Ayman Grada, H. C. Gugnani, Davide Guido, Rafael Alves Guimares, Yuming Guo, Rahul Gupta, Nima Hafezi‐Nejad, Michael Tamene Haile, Gessessew Bugssa Hailu, Arvin Haj‐Mirzaian, Arya Haj‐Mirzaian, Brian J. Hall, Demelash Woldeyohannes Handiso, Hamidreza Haririan, Ninuk Hariyani, Ahmed I Hasaballah, Md. Mehedi Hasan, Amir Hasanzadeh, Hadi Hassankhani, Hamid Yimam Hassen, Desta Haftu, Behnam Heidari, Nathaniel J Henry, Claudiu Herţeliu, Fatemeh Heydarpour, Hagos Degefa Hidru, Chi Linh Hoang, Praveen Hoogar, Mojtaba Hoseini‐Ghahfarokhi, Naznin Hossain, Mostafa Hosseini, Mehdi Hosseinzadeh, Mowafa Househ, Guoqing Hu, Ayesha Humayun, Syed Ather Hussain, Segun Emmanuel Ibitoye, Olayinka Stephen Ilesanmi, Milena Ilić, Leeberk Raja Inbaraj, Seyed Sina Naghibi Irvani, Sheikh Mohammed Shariful Islam, Chinwe Juliana Iwu, Anelisa Jaca, Nader Jafari Balalami, Nader Jahanmehr, Mihajlo Jakovljević, Amir Jalali, Achala Upendra Jayatilleke, Ensiyeh Jenabi, Ravi Prakash Jha, Vivekanand Jha, John S. Ji, Peng Jia, Kimberly B. Johnson, Jost B. Jonas, Jacek Jerzy Jozwiak, Ali Kabir, Zubair Kabir, Amaha Kahsay, Hamed Kalani, Tanuj Kanchan, Behzad Karami Matin, André Karch, Surendra Karki, Amir Kasaeian, Gebremicheal Gebreslassie Kasahun, Gbenga A Kayode, Ali Kazemi Karyani, Peter Njenga Keiyoro, Daniel Bekele Ketema, Yousef Khader, Morteza Abdullatif Khafaie, Nauman Khalid, Ali Talha Khalil, Rovshan Khalilov, Md Nuruzzaman Khan, Ejaz Ahmad Khan, Gulfaraz Khan, Junaid Khan, Khaled Khatab, Amir M Khater, Mona M Khater, Alireza Khatony, Maryam Khayamzadeh, Mohammad Khazaei, Salman Khazaei, Ehsan Khodamoradi, Mohammad Hossein Khosravi, Jagdish Khubchandani, Ali Kiadaliri, Yun Jin Kim, Ruth W Kimokoti, Sezer Kısa, Adnan Kısa, Niranjan Kissoon, Margaret Kosek, Ai Koyanagi, Moritz U. G. Kraemer, Kewal Krishan, Nuworza Kugbey, G Anil Kumar, Manasi Kumar, Pushpendra Kumar, Dian Kusuma, Carlo La Vecchia, Ben Lacey, Aparna Lal, Faris Lami, Van Charles Lansingh, Savita Lasrado, Paul H. Lee, Mostafa Leili, Tsegaye Tsegaye Lolaso Lolaso Lenjebo, Aubrey J. Levine, Sonia Lewycka, Shanshan Li, Shai Linn, Rakesh Lodha, Joshua Longbottom, Platon D Lopukhov, Sameh Magdeldin, Phetole Walter Mahasha, Narayan Bahadur Mahotra, Déborah Carvalho Malta, Abdullah Al Mamun, Navid Manafi, Farzad Manafi, Ana-Laura Manda, Mohammad Alì Mansournia, Chabila Christopher Mapoma, Dadi Marami, Laurie B. Marczak, Francisco Rogerlândio Martins‐Melo, Winfried März, Anthony Masaka, Manu Raj Mathur, Pallab K Maulik, Benjamin K. Mayala, Colm McAlinden, Man Mohan Mehndiratta, Ravi Mehrotra, Kala M. Mehta, Gebrekiros Gebremichael Meles, Addisu Melese, Ziad A. Memish, Alemayehu Toma Mena, Ritesh G. Menezes, Melkamu Merid Mengesha, Desalegn Tadese Mengistu, Getnet Mengistu, Tuomo J Meretoja, Bartosz Miazgowski, Molly K. Miller-Petrie, Edward J Mills, Seyed Mostafa Mir, Parvaneh Mirabi, Erkin М Мirrakhimov, Karzan Abdulmuhsin Mohammad, Yousef Mohammad, Dara K. Mohammad, Aso Mohammad Darwesh, Naser Mohammad Gholi Mezerji, Noushin Mohammadifard, Ammas Siraj Mohammed, Shafiu Mohammed, Jemal Mohammed, Farnam Mohebi, Ali H. Mokdad, Lorenzo Monasta, Yoshan Moodley, Masoud Moradi, Ghobad Moradi, Mohammad Moradi-Joo, Maziar Moradi‐Lakeh, Paula Moraga, Abbas Mosapour, Simin Mouodi, Seyyed Meysam Mousavi, Miliva Mozaffor, Atalay Goshu Muluneh, Moses Muriithi, Christopher J L Murray, GVS Murthy, Kamarul Imran Musa, Ghulam Mustafa, Muthupandian Saravanan, Mehdi Naderi, Ahamarshan Jayaraman Nagarajan, Mohsen Naghavi, Farid Najafi, Vinay Nangia, Javad Nazari, Duduzile Ndwandwe, Ionuţ Negoi, Josephine W Ngunjiri, QuynhAnh P Nguyen, Trang Huyen Nguyen, Cuong Tat Nguyen, Dabere Nigatu, Dina Nur Anggraini Ningrum, Chukwudi A Nnaji, Marzieh Nojomi, Jean Jacques Noubiap, In‐Hwan Oh, Oluchi Okpala, Andrew T Olagunju, Ahmed Omar Bali, Obinna Onwujekwe, Doris V Ortega-Altamirano, Osayomwanbo Osarenotor, Frank Osei, Mayowa Owolabi, P A Mahesh, Jagadish Rao Padubidri, Adrian Pană, Tahereh Pashaei, Sanghamitra Pati, Ajay Patle, George Patton, Kebreab Paulos, Veincent Christian Filipino Pepito, Alexandre C. Pereira, Norberto Perico, Konrad Pesudovs, David M. Pigott, Bakhtiar Piroozi, James A Platts-Mills, Mario Poljak, Maarten J. Postma, Hadi Pourjafar, Farshad Pourmalek, Akram Pourshams, Hossein Poustchi, Sergio I. Prada, Liliana Preoțescu, Hedley Quintana, Navid Rabiee, Mohammad Rabiee, Amir Radfar, Alireza Rafiei, Fakher Rahim, Vafa Rahimi‐Movaghar, Muhammad Aziz Rahman, Fatemeh Rajati, Kiana Ramezanzadeh, Chhabi Lal Ranabhat, Davide Rasella, Salman Rawaf, David Laith Rawaf, Lal Rawal, Giuseppe Remuzzi, Vishnu Renjith, André M. N. Renzaho, Melese Abate Reta, Satar Rezaei, Ana Isabel Ribeiro, Jennifer Rickard, Carlos Miguel Ríos-González, María Jesús Ríos-Blancas, Leonardo Roever, Luca Ronfani, Elias Merdassa Roro, Ali Rostami, Dietrich Rothenbacher, Enrico Rubagotti, Salvatore Rubino, Anas M. Saad, Siamak Sabour, Ehsan Sadeghi, Saeed Safari, Mahdi Safdarian, Rajesh Sagar, Mohammad Ali Sahraian, S. Mohammad Sajadi, Mohammad Reza Salahshoor, Nasir Salam, Farkhonde Salehi, Saleh Salehi Zahabi, Marwa Rashad Salem, Hosni Salem, Yahya Salimi, Hamideh Salimzadeh, Evanson Zondani Sambala, Abdallah M Samy, Juan Sanabria, Itamar S Santos, Sivan Yegnanarayana Iyer Saraswathy, Abdur Razzaque Sarker, Benn Sartorius, Brijesh Sathian, Maheswar Satpathy, Alyssa N. Sbarra, Lauren E. Schaeffer, David C. Schwebel, Anbissa Muleta Senbeta, Subramanian Senthilkumaran, Hosein Shabaninejad, Amira Shaheen, Masood Ali Shaikh, Ali Shalash, Seifadin Ahmed Shallo, Mehran Shams-Beyranvand, MohammadBagher Shamsi, Morteza Shamsizadeh, Mehdi Sharif, Muki Shey, Kenji Shibuya, Wondimeneh Shibabaw Shiferaw, Mika Shigematsu, Apurba Shil, Jae Il Shin, Rahman Shiri, Reza Shirkoohi, Si Si, Soraya Siabani, Jasvinder A. Singh, Narinder Pal Singh, Dhirendra Narain Sinha, Malede Mequanent Sisay, Eirini Skiadaresi, David L. Smith, Mohammad Reza Sobhiyeh, Anton Sokhan, Moslem Soofi, Joan B. Soriano, Muluken Bekele Sorrie, Ireneous N Soyiri, Chandrashekhar T Sreeramareddy, Agus Sudaryanto, Mu’awiyyah Babale Sufiyan, Hafiz Ansar Rasul Suleria, Bryan L. Sykes, Koku Sisay Tamirat, Aberash Abay Tassew, Nuno Taveira, Bineyam Taye, Arash Tehrani‐Banihashemi, Mohamad‐Hani Temsah, Berhe Etsay Tesfay, Fisaha Haile Tesfay, Zemenu Tadesse Tessema, Thirunavukkarasu Sathish, Nihal Thomas, Kenean Getaneh Tlaye, Boikhutso Tlou, Marcos Roberto Tovani‐Palone, Eugenio Traini, Khanh Bao Tran, Indang Trihandini, Irfan Ullah, Bhaskaran Unnikrishnan, Sahel Valadan Tahbaz, Pascual Valdéz, Santosh Varughese, Yousef Veisani, Francesco Saverio Violante, Sebastián Vollmer, Theo Vos, Fiseha Wadilo Wada, Yasir Waheed, Yafeng Wang, Yuan‐Pang Wang, Catherine A. Welgan, Ronny Westerman, Taweewat Wiangkham, Tissa Wijeratne, Charles Shey Wiysonge, Haileab Fekadu Wolde, Dawit Zewdu Wondafrash, Tewodros Eshete Wonde, Aimin Wu, Gelin Xu, Ali Yadollahpour, Seyed Hossein Yahyazadeh Jabbari, Tomohide Yamada, Mehdi Yaseri, Alex Yeshaneh, Mekdes Tigistu Yilma, Ebrahim M Yimer, Paul Yip, Biruck Desalegn Yirsaw, Engida Yisma, Naohiro Yonemoto, Mustafa Z Younis, Hebat-Allah Salah A. Yousof, Chuanhua Yu, Hasan Yusefzadeh, Mohammad Zamani, Carlos Zambrana‐Torrelio, Hamed Zandian, Nejimu Biza Zepro, Taye Abuhay Zewale, Dongyu Zhang, Yunquan Zhang, Xiu‐Ju Zhao, Arash Ziapour, Sanjay Zodpey, Simon I Hay
Bibliographic record
VenueThe Lancet · 2020
Typearticle
Languageen
FieldNursing
TopicChild Nutrition and Water Access
Canadian institutionsnot available
FundersEuropean and Developing Countries Clinical Trials PartnershipFogarty International CenterNational Cancer InstituteCenter for International HealthSydney Medical SchoolMedical Research CouncilSchool of Public Health and Family Medicine, University of Cape TownInjury Prevention Research CenterNational Institutes of HealthWolkite UniversityUniwersytet OpolskiAdigrat UniversityDezful University of Medical SciencesUniversitair Ziekenhuis AntwerpenWestern Sydney UniversityAl-Azhar UniversityUniversidade Federal de SergipeInstituto de Salud Carlos IIIDuke Kunshan UniversityImam Abdulrahman Bin Faisal UniversityI.M. Sechenov First Moscow State Medical UniversityAlborz University of Medical SciencesKarnatak University DharwadKwame Nkrumah University of Science and TechnologyUniversity of Health and Allied SciencesFakultet Medicinskih Nauka, Univerziteta U KragujevcuUniversity of ColomboInternational Centre for Diarrhoeal Disease Research, BangladeshUniversität UlmXiamen UniversityUniversitas AirlanggaAddis Ababa UniversityResearch Institute for Endocrine Sciences, Shahid Beheshti University of Medical SciencesUniversity of GondarUniverza v LjubljaniUniversidade Federal de Minas GeraisCentro de Investigación Biomédica en Red de Salud MentalFundação Oswaldo CruzUniversidade Federal de GoiásDebre Markos UniversityUniversität BielefeldInterregBabol University of Medical SciencesUniwersytet ŁódzkiKermanshah University of Medical SciencesQazvin University of Medical SciencesUniversitair Medisch Centrum GroningenJimma UniversityKarl-Franzens-Universität GrazCentral South UniversityUniversidade Federal do Rio Grande do SulIndian Council of Medical ResearchWestfälische Wilhelms-Universität MünsterHaramaya UniversityUniversidade de MacauUniversity College CorkTaipei Medical UniversityInyuvesi Yakwazulu-NataliUniversiti Kebangsaan MalaysiaJordan University of Science and TechnologyHamad Bin Khalifa UniversityQuaid-i-Azam UniversityKaiser PermanenteMinistry of Health and Medical EducationFundación Valle del LiliSouth African Medical Research CouncilBundesministerium für GesundheitUniversity of HaifaBanaras Hindu UniversityUnitatea Executiva pentru Finantarea Invatamantului Superior, a Cercetarii, Dezvoltarii si InovariiUniversity of OxfordAmirkabir University of TechnologyAmbo UniversityZhengzhou UniversityKyung Hee UniversityYonsei UniversitySharif University of TechnologyUniversitas Sebelas MaretCairo UniversityAin Shams UniversityUniversity of TwenteKarolinska InstitutetNational Institute for Health and Care ResearchUniversity of QueenslandBabol Noshirvani University of TechnologyHamadan University of Medical SciencesDeakin UniversityTabriz University of Medical SciencesUniversity of Cape TownUniversity of OttawaNational Authority for Scientific Research and InnovationKhalifa University of Science, Technology and ResearchUniversitas IndonesiaUniversity of Technology SydneyIsfahan University of Medical SciencesMinistry of Health, Labour and WelfareBournemouth UniversityUniversity of New EnglandAteneo de Manila UniversityRijksuniversiteit GroningenPublic Health AgencyMadda Walabu UniversityNational Heart Foundation of AustraliaImperial College LondonKing's College LondonUniversità degli Studi di SassariUniversity of LeicesterGolestan University of Medical SciencesCardiff UniversityNational Research FoundationQatar FoundationUniversity of PretoriaUniversitas Negeri SemarangUniversidade de São PauloUniversity of Health Sciences LahoreUniversity College LondonUniversity of TorontoAlexander von Humboldt-StiftungTribhuvan UniversityBirmingham City UniversityKasturba Medical College, ManipalMekelle UniversityWollega UniversityUniversiteit StellenboschPublic Health EnglandUniversity Of Nigeria NsukkaUniversità di BolognaShahid Beheshti University of Medical SciencesAn-Najah National UniversityUniversity of OklahomaTehran University of Medical Sciences and Health ServicesFundação para a Ciência e a TecnologiaAksum UniversityCollege of Science and Engineering, University of MinnesotaWellcome TrustLunds UniversitetStudent Research Committee, Tabriz University of Medical SciencesMedizinische Universität GrazBahir Dar UniversitySheffield Hallam UniversityUniversity of TabrizBaki Dövlət UniversitetiEuropean CommissionLa Trobe UniversityCurtin University of TechnologyBill and Melinda Gates FoundationWest Virginia UniversityDongguk UniversityBritish Heart FoundationMarch of Dimes FoundationBall State UniversityNIH Clinical CenterUniversity of Central FloridaKuwait UniversityUniversiteit UtrechtUniversity of MinnesotaHamad Medical CorporationUnited Arab Emirates UniversityAutoritatea Natională pentru Cercetare StiintificăAhvaz Jundishapur University of Medical SciencesEmory UniversitySouthern University of Science and TechnologyJames Cook UniversityPublic Health Agency of CanadaCochrane South AfricaFoundation for Advancement of International Medical Education and ResearchMahatma Gandhi UniversityU.S. Department of Veterans AffairsCancer Research InstituteUniversity of BaghdadMinistry of Education, Science and TechnologyBundesministerium für Bildung und ForschungUniversity of Warwick
KeywordsMedicineDisease burdenDemographyPsychological interventionMortality rateEnvironmental healthIncidence (geometry)Child mortalityBurden of diseaseInequalityCredible intervalGeographyConfidence intervalPopulationSurgery
Abstract
BACKGROUND: Across low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs), one in ten deaths in children younger than 5 years is attributable to diarrhoea. The substantial between-country variation in both diarrhoea incidence and mortality is attributable to interventions that protect children, prevent infection, and treat disease. Identifying subnational regions with the highest burden and mapping associated risk factors can aid in reducing preventable childhood diarrhoea. METHODS: We used Bayesian model-based geostatistics and a geolocated dataset comprising 15 072 746 children younger than 5 years from 466 surveys in 94 LMICs, in combination with findings of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2017, to estimate posterior distributions of diarrhoea prevalence, incidence, and mortality from 2000 to 2017. From these data, we estimated the burden of diarrhoea at varying subnational levels (termed units) by spatially aggregating draws, and we investigated the drivers of subnational patterns by creating aggregated risk factor estimates. FINDINGS: The greatest declines in diarrhoeal mortality were seen in south and southeast Asia and South America, where 54·0% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 38·1-65·8), 17·4% (7·7-28·4), and 59·5% (34·2-86·9) of units, respectively, recorded decreases in deaths from diarrhoea greater than 10%. Although children in much of Africa remain at high risk of death due to diarrhoea, regions with the most deaths were outside Africa, with the highest mortality units located in Pakistan. Indonesia showed the greatest within-country geographical inequality; some regions had mortality rates nearly four times the average country rate. Reductions in mortality were correlated to improvements in water, sanitation, and hygiene (WASH) or reductions in child growth failure (CGF). Similarly, most high-risk areas had poor WASH, high CGF, or low oral rehydration therapy coverage. INTERPRETATION: By co-analysing geospatial trends in diarrhoeal burden and its key risk factors, we could assess candidate drivers of subnational death reduction. Further, by doing a counterfactual analysis of the remaining disease burden using key risk factors, we identified potential intervention strategies for vulnerable populations. In view of the demands for limited resources in LMICs, accurately quantifying the burden of diarrhoea and its drivers is important for precision public health. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.
How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
metaresearch head score (Codex)0.001
metaresearch head score (Gemma)0.000
Version: codex-gemma-dda1882f352aValidation status: machine_predicted_unvalidated
Candidate categoriesnone
Consensus categoriesnone
DomainCandidate signal: none · Consensus signal: none
Study designCandidate signal: Observational · Consensus signal: Observational
GenreCandidate signal: Empirical · Consensus signal: Empirical
Teacher disagreement score0.014
Threshold uncertainty score0.504
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
Opus teacher head0.047
GPT teacher head0.307
Teacher spread0.261 · how far apart the two teachers sit on this one work
Validation status
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
The models applied no category: nothing in the taxonomy fit this work.
Study designObservational
Domainnot available
GenreEmpirical
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".
Quick stats
Citations132
Published2020
Admission routes1
Has abstractyes