Meteorological analysis and historical perspective of the 1999-2005 Canadian Prairie drought
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Drought is a complex natural hazard which is endemic to the Canadian Prairies. The 1999-2005 Canadian Prairie drought, which had great socio-economic impacts, was meteorologically unique in that it did not conform to traditional persistent ridging paradigms normally associated with Prairie drought. The purpose of this study is to diagnose the unique synoptic-scale mechanisms that lead to the subsidence in this drought. Using 30-day running means of percent of normal precipitation from station data, we identify key severe dry periods in 1999-2005. Analysis of the mean fields from reanalysis data shows that these dry events are associated with combinations of larger scale subsidence mechanisms of anticyclonic vorticity advection and cold air advection, along with the smaller scale subsidence mechanism of downslope flow. A brief historical perspective shows that the drought was centred in 2001-2002 and was not as severe as historical droughts, suggesting the increased vulnerability of society.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.002 | 0.004 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.002 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".