Clinical and Host Biological Factors Predict Colectomy Risk in Children Newly Diagnosed With Ulcerative Colitis
Bibliographic record
Abstract
BACKGROUND: Develop a clinical and biological predictive model for colectomy risk in children newly diagnosed with ulcerative colitis (UC). METHODS: This was a multicenter inception cohort study of children (ages 4-17 years) newly diagnosed with UC treated with standardized initial regimens of mesalamine or corticosteroids (CS) depending upon initial disease severity. Therapy escalation to immunomodulators or infliximab was based on predetermined criteria. Patients were phenotyped by clinical activity per the Pediatric Ulcerative Colitis Activity Index (PUCAI), disease extent, endoscopic/histologic severity, and laboratory markers. In addition, RNA sequencing defined pretreatment rectal gene expression and high density DNA genotyping by the Affymetrix UK Biobank Axiom Array. Coprimary outcomes were colectomy over 3 years and time to colectomy. Generalized linear models, Cox proportional hazards multivariate regression modeling, and Kaplan-Meier plots were used. RESULTS: Four hundred twenty-eight patients (mean age 13 years) started initial theapy with mesalamine (n = 136), oral CS (n = 144), or intravenous CS (n = 148). Twenty-five (6%) underwent colectomy at ≤1 year, 33 (9%) at ≤2 years, and 35 (13%) at ≤3 years. Further, 32/35 patients who had colectomy failed infliximab. An initial PUCAI ≥ 65 was highly associated with colectomy (P = 0.0001). A logistic regression model predicting colectomy using the PUCAI, hemoglobin, and erythrocyte sedimentation rate had a receiver operating characteristic area under the curve of 0.78 (95% confidence interval [0.73, 0.84]). Addition of a pretreatment rectal gene expression panel reflecting activation of the innate immune system and response to external stimuli and bacteria to the clinical model improved the receiver operating characteristic area under the curve to 0.87 (95% confidence interval [0.82, 0.91]). CONCLUSIONS: A small group of children newly diagnosed with severe UC still require colectomy despite current therapies. Our gene signature observations suggest additional targets for management of those patients not responding to current medical therapies.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.003 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".