A biochemically-interpretable machine learning classifier for microbial GWAS
Why this work is in the frame
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
Current machine learning classifiers have successfully been applied to whole-genome sequencing data to identify genetic determinants of antimicrobial resistance (AMR), but they lack causal interpretation. Here we present a metabolic model-based machine learning classifier, named Metabolic Allele Classifier (MAC), that uses flux balance analysis to estimate the biochemical effects of alleles. We apply the MAC to a dataset of 1595 drug-tested Mycobacterium tuberculosis strains and show that MACs predict AMR phenotypes with accuracy on par with mechanism-agnostic machine learning models (isoniazid AUC = 0.93) while enabling a biochemical interpretation of the genotype-phenotype map. Interpretation of MACs for three antibiotics (pyrazinamide, para-aminosalicylic acid, and isoniazid) recapitulates known AMR mechanisms and suggest a biochemical basis for how the identified alleles cause AMR. Extending flux balance analysis to identify accurate sequence classifiers thus contributes mechanistic insights to GWAS, a field thus far dominated by mechanism-agnostic results.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it