Estimation of the Bankruptcy Risk of the Companies in the BIST Construction Index
Bibliographic record
Abstract
In this study, it is aimed to measure the effects of the recent négative developments in the Turkish Construction sector on the financial failures of the companies in Borsa Istanbul Construction Index. This study is particularly important with regard to determining whether the concordat announcements, which started especially in the 3rd quarter of 2018, carry a risk for the construction sector and ascertaining whether there have been any warnings beforehand.The financial statements of the companies in the construction sector in 2010-2018 period will be analyzed with the Altman Z score model to see if they carry bankruptcy risk. In addition, by comparing the calculated Z scores with the stock prices of stock certificates, the extent to which the probabilities of bankruptcy are priced in the stock market will also be measured. Predicting bankruptcy risk is vital for both firms and stakeholders. The findings will contribute significantly to strategy determination for firms and investors in this sector. On the other hand, the results will also guide investors' stock preferences.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.005 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.004 | 0.002 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".