Optimizing surveillance and management of emerald ash borer in urban environments
Why this work is in the frame
A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract Emerald ash borer (EAB), a wood‐boring insect native to Asia, was discovered near Detroit in 2002 and has spread and killed millions of ash trees throughout the eastern United States and Canada. EAB causes severe damage in urban areas where it kills high‐value ash trees that shade streets, homes, and parks and costs homeowners and local governments millions of dollars for treatment, removal, and replacement of infested trees. We present a multistage, stochastic, mixed‐integer programming model to help decision‐makers maximize the public benefits of preserving healthy ash trees in an urban environment. The model allocates resources to surveillance of the ash population and subsequent treatment and removal of infested trees over time. We explore the multistage dynamics of an EAB outbreak with a dispersal mechanism and apply the optimization model to explore surveillance, treatment, and removal options to manage an EAB outbreak in Winnipeg, a city of Manitoba, Canada. Recommendation to Resource Managers Our approach demonstrates that timely detection and early response are critical factors for maximizing the number of healthy trees in urban areas affected by the pest outbreak. Treatment of the infested trees is most effective when done at the earliest stage of infestation. Treating asymptomatic trees at the earliest stages of infestation provides higher net benefits than tree removal or no‐treatment options. Our analysis suggests the use of branch sampling as a more accurate method than the use of sticky traps to detect the infested asymptomatic trees, which enables treating and removing more infested trees at the early stages of infestation. Our results also emphasize the importance of allocating a sufficient budget for tree removal to manage emerald ash borer infestations in urban environments. Tree removal becomes a less useful option in small‐budget solutions where the optimal policy is to spend most of the budget on treatments.
Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it