Bibliographic record
Abstract
I n January 2020, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) projected that the federal budget deficit (a negative surplus) would total $1.015 trillion in fiscal year (FY) 2020 and $1 trillion in FY 2021. 1 Those projections are now obsolete because of the many actions taken by government officials to fight the COVID-19 pandemic.These actions, while designed to prevent a health crisis of an unknown magnitude and duration, have nonetheless helped trigger massive job losses and the shuttering of businesses.A deep recession is likely.The deep recession will further increase the size of the federal budget deficit since lower economic activity will reduce tax revenues and automatically increase certain types of federal expenditures (e.g., unemployment benefits).As in the 2008 Financial Crisis, fiscal policymakers (Congress and the Administration) have responded aggressively to help mitigate the economic damage wrought by the collapse in economic activity.This spring, several pieces of legislation were signed into law.The largest is the Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security Actor CARES Act-which was signed into law on March 27. 2 The Act is effectively two main parts.The first is a $1.8 trillion package that, according to the CBO, increases mandatory outlays by nearly $1 trillion; decreases federal tax revenue by $408 billion; and increases discretionary outlays by about $325 billion.3 The second major part of the CARES Act authorizes the Secretary of the Treasury to provide up to $454 billion to fund emergency lending facilities established by the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.A follow-up round of spending was approved on April 24, when President Trump signed the Paycheck Protection Program and Health Care Enhancement Act (PPPHCA) into law.This Bad Medicine?Federal Debt and Deficits after COVID-19
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.007 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.005 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.004 | 0.002 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.002 |
| Research integrity | 0.004 | 0.005 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.014 | 0.002 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".