Retinal nerve fiber layer thickness predicts CSF amyloid/tau before cognitive decline
Bibliographic record
Abstract
BACKGROUND: Alzheimer's disease (AD) pathology precedes symptoms and its detection can identify at-risk individuals who may benefit from early treatment. Since the retinal nerve fiber layer (RNFL) is depleted in established AD, we tested whether its thickness can predict whether cognitively healthy (CH) individuals have a normal or pathological cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) Aß42 (A) and tau (T) ratio. METHODS: As part of an ongoing longitudinal study, we enrolled CH individuals, excluding those with cognitive impairment and significant ocular pathology. We classified the CH group into two sub-groups, normal (CH-NAT, n = 16) or pathological (CH-PAT, n = 27), using a logistic regression model from the CSF AT ratio that identified >85% of patients with a clinically probable AD diagnosis. Spectral-domain optical coherence tomography (OCT) was acquired for RNFL, ganglion cell-inner plexiform layer (GC-IPL), and macular thickness. Group differences were tested using mixed model repeated measures and a classification model derived using multiple logistic regression. RESULTS: Mean age (± standard deviation) in the CH-PAT group (n = 27; 75.2 ± 8.4 years) was similar (p = 0.50) to the CH-NAT group (n = 16; 74.1 ± 7.9 years). Mean RNFL (standard error) was thinner in the CH-PAT group by 9.8 (2.7) μm; p < 0.001. RNFL thickness classified CH-NAT vs. CH-PAT with 87% sensitivity and 56.3% specificity. CONCLUSIONS: Our retinal data predict which individuals have CSF biomarkers of AD pathology before cognitive deficits are detectable with 87% sensitivity. Such results from easy-to-acquire, objective and non-invasive measurements of the RNFL merit further study of OCT technology to monitor or screen for early AD pathology.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".