An Unquantified Uncertainty Visualization Design Space During the Opioid Crisis
Why this work is in the frame
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
We propose a visualization design space for representing unquantified uncertainty in percent composition drug checking test results using pie and cake charts during the opioid crisis. The design space generates alternatives for use in a visual drug report design study that may improve decision-making concerning illicit drug use. Currently, communication of drug checking test results does not capture the uncertainty in drug checking tests, leading to poor and potentially harmful decisions. The design alternatives generated by the design space aim to empower people who use drugs with drug sample information and facilitate harm reduction efforts. Our visualizations may apply to other drug checking services and to scenarios where uncertainty visualization researchers wish to notify end users of the presence of unquantified uncertainty in safety-critical decision-making contexts like those found during the opioid crisis.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.003 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it