Predicting Disease in Transition Dairy Cattle Based on Behaviors Measured Before Calving
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Dairy cattle are particularly susceptible to metritis, hyperketonemia (HYK), and mastitis in the weeks after calving. These high-prevalence transition diseases adversely affect animal welfare, milk production, and profitability. Our aim was to use prepartum behavior to predict which cows have an increased risk of developing these conditions after calving. The behavior of 213 multiparous and 105 primiparous Holsteins was recorded for approximately three weeks before calving by an electronic feeding system. Cows were also monitored for signs of metritis, HYK, and mastitis in the weeks after calving. The data were split using a stratified random method: we used 70% of our data (hereafter referred to as the "training" dataset) to develop the model and the remaining 30% of data (i.e., the "test" dataset) to assess the model's predictive ability. Separate models were developed for primiparous and multiparous animals. The area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve using the test dataset for multiparous cows was 0.83, sensitivity and specificity were 73% and 80%, positive predictive value (PPV) was 73%, and negative predictive value (NPV) was 80%. The area under the ROC curve using the test dataset for primiparous cows was 0.86, sensitivity and specificity were 71% and 84%, PPV was 77%, and NPV was 80%. We conclude that prepartum behavior can be used to predict cows at risk of metritis, HYK, and mastitis after calving.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".