Prévision et visualisation de l'affluence dans les transports en commun à l'aide de méthodes d'apprentissage automatique
Bibliographic record
Abstract
As part of the fight against global warming, several countries around the world, including Canada and some European countries, including France, have established measures to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. One of the major areas addressed by the states concerns the transport sector and more particularly the development of public transport to reduce the use of private cars. To this end, the local authorities concerned aim to establish more accessible, clean and sustainable urban transport systems. In this context, this thesis, co-directed by the University of Paris-Est, the french institute of science and technology for transport, development and network (IFSTTAR) and Polytechnique Montréal in Canada, focuses on the analysis of urban mobility through research conducted on the forecasting and visualization of public transport ridership using machine learning methods. The main motivations concern the improvement of transport services offered to passengers such as: better planning of transport supply, improvement of passenger information (e.g., proposed itinerary in the case of an event/incident, information about the crowd in the train at a chosen time, etc.). In order to improve transport operators' knowledge of user travel in urban areas, we are taking advantage of the development of data science (e.g., data collection, development of machine learning methods). This thesis thus focuses on three main parts: (i) long-term forecasting of passenger demand using event databases, (ii) short-term forecasting of passenger demand and (iii) visualization of passenger demand on public transport. The research is mainly based on the use of ticketing data provided by transport operators and was carried out on three real case study, the metro and bus network of the city of Rennes, the rail and tramway network of "La Défense" business district in Paris, France, and the metro network of Montreal, Quebec in Canada
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.003 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".