MétaCan
Menu
Back to cohort

Informed Options Trading Before Corporate Events

2020· article· en· W3033290158 on OpenAlexaff
Patrick Augustin, Marti G. Subrahmanyam

Bibliographic record

VenueAnnual Review of Financial Economics · 2020
Typearticle
Languageen
FieldBusiness, Management and Accounting
TopicCorporate Finance and Governance
Canadian institutionsMcGill University
FundersVolkswagen FoundationAlexander von Humboldt-Stiftung
KeywordsInsider tradingBusinessAlternative trading systemExtant taxonCredit default swapAlgorithmic tradingEarningsTrading strategyAccountingFinancial economicsMergers and acquisitionsFinanceEconomicsCredit risk

Abstract

fetched live from OpenAlex

There is sufficient evidence in the popular, legal, and financial literatures that informed options trading ahead of scheduled and unexpected corporate events is pervasive. In this review, we piece together the extant evidence on this topic into a cohesive picture, which includes abnormal activity ahead of announcements of earnings, mergers and acquisitions, as well as numerous other corporate events. We also discuss the more limited evidence on informed trading in other derivatives markets, such as credit default swaps. In addition, we characterize the impact and features of illegal insider trading and insider trading networks. We also provide a brief overview of the legal framework in the United States concerning legal and illegal insider trading to emphasize the challenges associated with identifying informed options trading. We end with our suggestions regarding future research opportunities in this broad topic.

Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.

How this classification was reachedexpand

Full frame machine prediction

Teacher imitation

Not calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.

metaresearch head score (Codex)0.002
metaresearch head score (Gemma)0.011
Version: metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061cValidation status: machine_predicted_unvalidated
Candidate categoriesnone
Consensus categoriesnone
DomainCandidate signal: none · Consensus signal: none
Study designCandidate signal: Observational · Consensus signal: none
GenreCandidate signal: Review · Consensus signal: none
Teacher disagreement score0.004
Threshold uncertainty score0.015

Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)

CategoryCodexGemma
Metaresearch0.0020.011
Meta-epidemiology (narrow)0.0000.000
Meta-epidemiology (broad)0.0000.000
Bibliometrics0.0010.001
Science and technology studies0.0000.001
Scholarly communication0.0030.003
Open science0.0000.001
Research integrity0.0010.001
Insufficient payload (model declined to judge)0.0040.001

Machine scores (provisional)

The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.

Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.

Opus teacher head0.030
GPT teacher head0.232
Teacher spread0.201 · how far apart the two teachers sit on this one work
Validation statusscore_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it

Classification

machine, unvalidated

Machine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.

The models applied no category: nothing in the taxonomy fit this work.
Study designObservational
Domainnot available
GenreReview

How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".

Quick stats

Citations30
Published2020
Admission routes1
Has abstractyes

Explore more

Same venueAnnual Review of Financial EconomicsSame topicCorporate Finance and GovernanceFrench-language works237,207