Bibliographic record
Abstract
In this paper, the pricing performance of the generalised autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) option pricing model is tested when applied to Bitcoin (BTCUSD). In addition, implied volatility indices (30, 60-and 90-days) of BTCUSD and the Cyptocurrency Index (CRIX) are generated by making use of the symmetric GARCH option pricing model. The results indicate that the GARCH option pricing model produces accurate European option prices when compared to market prices and that the BTCUSD and CRIX implied volatility indices are similar when compared, this is consistent with expectations because BTCUSD is highly weighted when calculating the CRIX. Furthermore, the term structure of volatility indices indicate that short-term volatility (30 days) is generally lower when compared to longer maturities. Furthermore, short-term volatility tends to increase to higher levels when compared to 60 and 90 day volatility when large jumps occur in the underlying asset.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".