Handling Black Swan Events in Deep Learning with Diversely Extrapolated Neural Networks
Bibliographic record
Abstract
By virtue of their expressive power, neural networks (NNs) are well suited to fitting large, complex datasets, yet they are also known to produce similar predictions for points outside the training distribution. As such, they are, like humans, under the influence of the Black Swan theory: models tend to be extremely "surprised" by rare events, leading to potentially disastrous consequences, while justifying these same events in hindsight. To avoid this pitfall, we introduce DENN, an ensemble approach building a set of Diversely Extrapolated Neural Networks that fits the training data and is able to generalize more diversely when extrapolating to novel data points. This leads DENN to output highly uncertain predictions for unexpected inputs. We achieve this by adding a diversity term in the loss function used to train the model, computed at specific inputs. We first illustrate the usefulness of the method on a low-dimensional regression problem. Then, we show how the loss can be adapted to tackle anomaly detection during classification, as well as safe imitation learning problems.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.005 | 0.014 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.003 |
| Open science | 0.003 | 0.004 |
| Research integrity | 0.003 | 0.004 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".