The Price Effect of Trade: Evidence of the China Shock and Canadian Consumer Prices
Bibliographic record
Abstract
The explosive growth in Chinese imports to Canada over the last two decades has had both negative and positive effects. In this paper, we look at the impact of Chinese imports on the prices Canadians pay for household consumption goods. We find Canadians have benefited from lower prices on some goods and lower inflation overall. To quantify the importance of Chinese imports for individual consumer products and map them to consumer price data, we construct concordance between products in the consumer price index (CPI) and commodities in the Harmonized Commodity Description and Coding System. We estimate that over the 2001-2011 period, cumulative inflation would have been 1.17-percentage-points higher for the total CPI had there been no change in the Chinese share of total imports in Canada. This assumes other factors are held constant. The average annual inflation for the total CPI was 2.1 per cent over the 2001-2011 period, implying that annual inflation would have been about 0.12-percentage-points higher if there had not been a surge in imports from China.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.004 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.004 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.004 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".