Late functional improvement and 5-year poststroke outcomes: a population-based cohort study
Bibliographic record
Abstract
BACKGROUND: Late functional improvement between 3 and 12 months poststroke occurs in about one in four patients with ischaemic stroke, more commonly in lacunar strokes. It is unknown whether this late improvement is associated with better long-term clinical or health economic outcomes. METHODS: In a prospective, population-based cohort of 1-year ischaemic stroke survivors (Oxford Vascular Study; 2002-2014), we examined changes in functional status (modified Rankin Scale (mRS), Rivermead Mobility Index (RMI), Barthel Index (BI)) from 3 to 12 months poststroke. We used Cox regressions adjusted for age, sex, 3-month disability and stroke subtype (lacunar vs non-lacunar) to examine the association of late improvement (by ≥1 mRS grades, ≥1 RMI points and/or ≥2 BI points between 3 and 12 months) with 5-year mortality and institutionalisation. We used similarly adjusted generalised linear models to examine association with 5-year healthcare/social-care costs. RESULTS: Among 1288 one-year survivors, 1135 (88.1%) had 3-month mRS >0, of whom 319 (28.1%) demonstrated late functional improvement between 3 and 12 months poststroke. Late improvers had lower 5-year mortality (aHR per mRS=0.68, 95% CI 0.51 to 0.91, p=0.009), institutionalisation (aHR 0.48, 0.33 to 0.72, p<0.001) and healthcare/social care costs (margin US$17 524, -24 763 to -10 284, p<0.001). These associations remained on excluding patients with recurrent strokes during follow-up (eg, 5-year mortality/institutionalisation: aHR 0.59, 0.44 to 0.79, p<0.001) and on examining late improvement per RMI and/or BI (eg, 5-year mortality/institutionalisation with RMI/BI: aHR 0.73, 0.58 to 0.92, p=0.008). CONCLUSION: Late functional improvement poststroke is associated with lower 5-year mortality, institutionalisation rates and healthcare/social care costs. These findings should motivate patients and clinicians to maximise late recovery in routine practice, and to consider extending access to proven rehabilitative therapies during the first year poststroke.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.003 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".