Blood Pressure States Transition Inference Based on Multi-State Markov Model
Bibliographic record
Abstract
The investigation of risk factors associated with hypertension patients has been extensively studied in the past decades. However, the pattern of natural progressive trajectories to hypertension from nonhypertensive states was rarely explored. In this study, we are interested in discovering the underlying transition patterns between different blood pressure states, namely normal state, elevated state, and hypertensive state among the working population in the United States. A multi-state Markov model was built based on 88,966 clinical records from 34,719 participants we collected during the worksite preventive screening from 2012 to 2018. We first investigated the various risk factors, and we found that body mass index (BMI) is the most critical factor for developing new-onset hypertension. The transition probabilities, survival probabilities, and sojourn time of each state were derived given different levels of BMI, age groups, and gender categories. We found the underweight participants are more likely to remain in the current nonhypertensive states within 3 years, while extremely obese participants have a higher probability of developing hypertension. We discovered the distinct transition patterns among male and female participants. On average, the sojourn time in the normal state for normal-weight participants is 4.33 years for females and 2.18 years for their male counterparts. For the extremely obese participants, the average sojourn time in the normal state is 1.38 years for females and 0.71 years for males. In the end, a web-based graphical user interface (GUI) application was developed for clinicians to visualize the impact of behavioral interventions on delaying the progression of hypertension. Our analysis can provide a unique insight into hypertension research and proactive interventions.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.003 | 0.010 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.003 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.005 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".