Advanced statistical analysis of empirical performance scaling
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Theoretical running time complexity analysis is a widely adopted method for studying the scaling behaviour of algorithms. However, theoretical analysis remains intractable for many high-performance, heuristic algorithms. Recent advances in statistical methods for empirical running time scaling analysis have shown that many state-of-the-art algorithms can achieve significantly better scaling in practice than expected. However, current techniques have only been successfully applied to study algorithms on randomly generated instance sets, since they require instances that can be grouped into "bins", where each instance in a bin has the same size. In practice, real-world instance sets with this property are rarely available. We introduce a novel method that overcomes this limitation. We apply our method to a broad range of scenarios and demonstrate its effectiveness by revealing new insights into the scaling of several prominent algorithms; e.g., the SAT solver lingeling often appears to achieve sub-polynomial scaling on prominent bounded model checking instances, and the training times of scikit-learn's implementation of SVMs scale as a lower-degree polynomial than expected (≈ 1.51 instead of 2).
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.018 | 0.187 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.005 | 0.005 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.004 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.003 | 0.007 |
| Open science | 0.002 | 0.003 |
| Research integrity | 0.002 | 0.006 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.006 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".