Generalizable deep temporal models for predicting episodes of sudden hypotension in critically ill patients: a personalized approach
Bibliographic record
Abstract
The vast quantities of data generated and collected in the Intensive Care Unit (ICU) have given rise to large retrospective datasets that are frequently used for observational studies. The temporal nature and fine granularity of much of the data collected in the ICU enable the pursuit of predictive modeling. In particular, forecasting acute hypotensive episodes (AHE) in intensive care patients has been of interest to researchers in critical care medicine. Given an advance warning of an AHE, care providers may be prompted to search for evolving disease processes and help mitigate negative clinical outcomes. However, the conventionally adopted definition of an AHE does not account for inter-patient variability and is restrictive. To reflect the wider trend of global clinical and research efforts in precision medicine, we introduce a patient-specific definition of AHE in this study and propose deep learning based models to predict this novel definition of AHE in data from multiple independent institutions. We provide extensive evaluation of the models by studying their accuracies in detecting patient-specific AHEs with lead-times ranging from 10 min to 1 hour before the onset of the event. The resulting models achieve AUROC values ranging from 0.57-0.87 depending on the lead time of the prediction. We demonstrate the generalizability and robustness of our approach through the use of independent multi-institutional data.
Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.
How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.004 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".