Historical Data: International monthly government bond returns
Why this work is in the frame
A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Academics and research analysts in financial economics frequently use returns on government bonds for their empirical analyses. In the United States, government bonds are also called Treasury bonds. The Federal Reserve publishes the yield-to-maturity of Treasury bonds. However, the Treasury bond returns earned by investors are not publicly available. The purpose of this study is to provide these currently not publicly available return series and provide formulas such that these series can easily be updated by researchers. We use standard textbook formulas to convert the yield-to-maturity data to investor returns. The starting date of our series is January 1962, when end-of-month data on the yield-to-maturity become publicly available. We compare our newly created total return series with alternative series that can be purchased. Our return series are very close, suggesting that they are a high-quality public alternative to commercially available data. <br> This data set calculates monthly returns for: United States (starting 1947) Germany (starting 1972) Japan (starting 1974) Australia (starting 1969)<br> France (starting 1987) Canada (starting 1986) UK (starting 1970) Norway (starting 1921) Sweden (starting 1920)<br> <br> Data updated unitl December 2022. <br>
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it