Projection of winter NPO-following winter ENSO connection in a warming climate: uncertainty due to internal climate variability
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract Previous observational and modeling studies indicate that the wintertime North Pacific Oscillation (NPO) could significantly impact the following winter El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variability via the seasonal footprinting mechanism (SFM). This study explores climate projections of this winter NPO-ENSO relation in a warming climate based on a 50-member large ensemble of climate simulations conducted with the second-generation Canadian Earth System Model (CanESM2). The ensemble mean of the 50 members can well reproduce the observed winter NPO pattern, the NPO-ENSO relationship, and the SFM process over the historical period 1950–2003. These 50 members are then employed to examine climate projections of the NPO-ENSO connection over the anthropogenic forced period 2020–2073. Results indicate that there exists a large spread of projected NPO-ENSO connections across these 50 ensemble members due to internal climate variability. Internal climate variability brings uncertainties in the projection of the winter NPO-ENSO connection originally seen in projected changes of the subtropical center of the winter NPO. The spread of projections of winter NPO-associated atmospheric anomalies over the subtropical North Pacific further results in various responses in the projections of winter and spring precipitation anomalies over the tropical North Pacific, as well as spring zonal wind anomalies over the tropical western Pacific, which eventually lead to uncertainties in the projection of the sea surface temperature anomalies in the tropical central-eastern Pacific from the following summer to winter.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.002 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".