Comparison of mortality risk in patients with cirrhosis and COVID-19 compared with patients with cirrhosis alone and COVID-19 alone: multicentre matched cohort
Bibliographic record
Abstract
OBJECTIVE: Comorbid conditions are associated with poor prognosis in COVID-19. Registry data show that patients with cirrhosis may be at high risk. However, outcome comparisons among patients with cirrhosis+COVID-19 versus patients with COVID-19 alone and cirrhosis alone are lacking. The aim of this study was to perform these comparisons. DESIGN: A multicentre study of inpatients with cirrhosis+COVID-19 compared with age/gender-matched patients with COVID-19 alone and cirrhosis alone was performed. COVID-19 and cirrhosis characteristics, development of organ failures and acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) and mortality (inpatient death+hospice) were compared. RESULTS: 37 patients with cirrhosis+COVID-19 were matched with 108 patients with COVID-19 and 127 patients with cirrhosis from seven sites. Race/ethnicity were similar. Patients with cirrhosis+COVID-19 had higher mortality compared with patients with COVID-19 (30% vs 13%, p=0.03) but not between patients with cirrhosis+COVID-19 and patients with cirrhosis (30% vs 20%, p=0.16). Patients with cirrhosis+COVID-19 versus patients with COVID-19 alone had equivalent respiratory symptoms, chest findings and rates of intensive care unit transfer and ventilation. However, patients with cirrhosis+COVID-19 had worse Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI 6.5±3.1 vs 3.3±2.5, p<0.001), lower presenting GI symptoms and higher lactate. Patients with cirrhosis alone had higher cirrhosis-related complications, maximum model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) score and lower BiPAP/ventilation requirement compared with patients with cirrhosis+COVID-19, but CCI and ACLF rates were similar. In the entire group, CCI (OR 1.23, 95% CI 1.11 to 1.37, p<0.0001) was the only variable predictive of mortality on multivariable regression. CONCLUSIONS: In this multicentre North American contemporaneously enrolled study, age/gender-matched patients with cirrhosis+COVID-19 had similar mortality compared with patients with cirrhosis alone but higher than patients with COVID-19 alone. CCI was the only independent mortality predictor in the entire matched cohort.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".