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Record W3041248092 · doi:10.5539/ijef.v12n8p91

Analysis and Forecasting the Agriculture Production Sector in Rwanda

2020· article· en· W3041248092 on OpenAlexvenueno aff
Jean Niyigaba, Daiyan Peng

Bibliographic record

VenueInternational Journal of Economics and Finance · 2020
Typearticle
Languageen
FieldDecision Sciences
TopicGrey System Theory Applications
Canadian institutionsnot available
Fundersnot available
KeywordsAgricultureProduction (economics)Investment (military)WorkforceEconomicsEconomic sectorSector modelAgricultural productivityPrimary sector of the economyAgricultural economicsBusinessEconomic growthEconomyGeographyMacroeconomicsPolitical science

Abstract

fetched live from OpenAlex

Agriculture production is a crucial economic growth sector, especially for developing countries like Rwanda. Resulted from investments boosting in several areas, Rwanda experienced stable economic growth, where agriculture provides a vital contribution and significant Policies adopted for agriculture improvement. However, the sector's future development still unclear as it is manifesting decrement shares over the years in the county's economy and workforce. No research has yet projected the sector's future production to explain the sector's trend, allowing the government and partners to formulate strategies accordingly. This paper analyzes the sector's economic contribution over several years and forecasts its future. The useful combined grey model predicts the sector's production where a nonlinear grey Bernoulli model (NGBM) with an added optimal parameter (NGBM-OP) is used for the prediction after comparison to others. Outcomes in the sample size from 1960 to 2017, confirm the NGBM-OP as the reliable compared with other prediction models then becomes the best for forecast up to 2030. The obtained sector's production forecast, results pointed out the sector's slow production increment in the future. Suggest its improvement based on investment attractions, especially the young generation through financial facilitation, farmer's training, and opportunity awareness.

Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.

How this classification was reachedexpand

Full frame machine prediction

Teacher imitation

Not calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.

metaresearch head score (Codex)0.001
metaresearch head score (Gemma)0.001
Version: metacan-v3-hybrid-931329e0061cValidation status: machine_predicted_unvalidated
Candidate categoriesnone
Consensus categoriesnone
DomainCandidate signal: none · Consensus signal: none
Study designCandidate signal: Simulation or modeling · Consensus signal: Simulation or modeling
GenreCandidate signal: Empirical · Consensus signal: Empirical
Teacher disagreement score0.025
Threshold uncertainty score0.051

Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)

CategoryCodexGemma
Metaresearch0.0010.001
Meta-epidemiology (narrow)0.0000.000
Meta-epidemiology (broad)0.0000.000
Bibliometrics0.0010.001
Science and technology studies0.0000.000
Scholarly communication0.0010.001
Open science0.0000.000
Research integrity0.0000.000
Insufficient payload (model declined to judge)0.0010.000

Machine scores (provisional)

The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.

Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.

Opus teacher head0.070
GPT teacher head0.291
Teacher spread0.221 · how far apart the two teachers sit on this one work
Validation statusscore_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it

Classification

machine, unvalidated

Machine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.

The models applied no category: nothing in the taxonomy fit this work.
Study designSimulation or modeling
Domainnot available
GenreEmpirical

How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".

Quick stats

Citations9
Published2020
Admission routes1
Has abstractyes

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