Schumann resonance intensity as a precursor for warm ENSO episodes
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Schumann resonances (SR) are the global electromagnetic resonances of the Earth-ionosphere cavity and constitute the extremely low frequency (< 100 Hz) radiation of the worldwide lightning activity (Schumann, 1952). The recording of SR intensity at a few distant SR stations is an efficient tool to monitor the global lightning. We present the variations of SR intensity in the transition months preceding the warm ENSO episodes for the two super El Niño events in 1997/98 and 2015/16 as well as for the two medium size El Niño periods in 2001/02 and 2008/09 based on SR observations at multiple locations.: Nagycenk, Hungary (47.6N, 16.7E); Hornsund, Svalbard (77.0N, 15.6E); Eskdalemuir, UK (55.3N, 3.2W); Alberta, Canada (51.9N, 111.5W); Boulder Creek, USA (37.2N, 122.1W). A remarkable increase in SR intensity is documented two-three months before or just at the beginning of El Niño episodes as compared with the SR intensity in the same months of the preceding La Niña (or non-ENSO) phase for all cases studied here. The percentage increase in SR intensity depends on the amplitude of the warm ENSO period, and is consistently higher for the two super El Niño events. The enhanced SR intensity indicates a worldwide response of global lightning activity. Increased atmospheric instability due to the land-ocean thermal interaction during the transition interval could be responsible for the intensification of lightning activity. This systematic behavior may have been overlooked in earlier studies that compared lightning activity in the integrated ‘cold’ and the ‘warm’ phases, but without exploring the transitional variation. Our results suggest that the SR intensity variation on the interannual time scale acts a precursor for the occurrence of warm ENSO episode.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".