Predicting disease occurrence with high accuracy based on soil macroecological patterns of Fusarium wilt
Why this work is in the frame
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
Soil-borne plant diseases are increasingly causing devastating losses in agricultural production. The development of a more refined model for disease prediction can aid in reducing crop losses through the use of preventative control measures or soil fallowing for a planting season. The emergence of high-throughput DNA sequencing technology has provided unprecedented insight into the microbial composition of diseased versus healthy soils. However, a single independent case study rarely yields a general conclusion predictive of the disease in a particular soil. Here, we attempt to account for the differences among various studies and plant varieties using a machine-learning approach based on 24 independent bacterial data sets comprising 758 samples and 22 independent fungal data sets comprising 279 samples of healthy or Fusarium wilt-diseased soils from eight different countries. We found that soil bacterial and fungal communities were both clearly separated between diseased and healthy soil samples that originated from six crops across nine countries or regions. Alpha diversity was consistently greater in the fungal community of healthy soils. While diseased soil microbiomes harbored higher abundances of Xanthomonadaceae, Bacillaceae, Gibberella, and Fusarium oxysporum, the healthy soil microbiome contained more Streptomyces Mirabilis, Bradyrhizobiaceae, Comamonadaceae, Mortierella, and nonpathogenic fungi of Fusarium. Furthermore, a random forest method identified 45 bacterial OTUs and 40 fungal OTUs that categorized the health status of the soil with an accuracy >80%. We conclude that these models can be applied to predict the potential for occurrence of F. oxysporum wilt by revealing key biological indicators and features common to the wilt-diseased soil microbiome.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it