A general method for elicitation, imputation, and sensitivity analysis for incomplete repeated binary data
Bibliographic record
Abstract
We develop and demonstrate methods to perform sensitivity analyses to assess sensitivity to plausible departures from missing at random in incomplete repeated binary outcome data. We use multiple imputation in the not at random fully conditional specification framework, which includes one or more sensitivity parameters (SPs) for each incomplete variable. The use of an online elicitation questionnaire is demonstrated to obtain expert opinion on the SPs, and highest prior density regions are used alongside opinion pooling methods to display credible regions for SPs. We demonstrate that substantive conclusions can be far more sensitive to departures from the missing at random assumption (MAR) when control and intervention nonresponders depart from MAR differently, and show that the correlation of arm specific SPs in expert opinion is particularly important. We illustrate these methods on the iQuit in Practice smoking cessation trial, which compared the impact of a tailored text messaging system versus standard care on smoking cessation. We show that conclusions about the effect of intervention on smoking cessation outcomes at 8 week and 6 months are broadly insensitive to departures from MAR, with conclusions significantly affected only when the differences in behavior between the nonresponders in the two trial arms is larger than expert opinion judges to be realistic.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.136 | 0.333 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.003 | 0.003 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.004 | 0.008 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.008 | 0.007 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.002 | 0.003 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.004 | 0.004 |
| Open science | 0.005 | 0.007 |
| Research integrity | 0.004 | 0.008 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.016 | 0.003 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".