Inferring disease subtypes from clusters in explanation space
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Identification of disease subtypes and corresponding biomarkers can substantially improve clinical diagnosis and treatment selection. Discovering these subtypes in noisy, high dimensional biomedical data is often impossible for humans and challenging for machines. We introduce a new approach to facilitate the discovery of disease subtypes: Instead of analyzing the original data, we train a diagnostic classifier (healthy vs. diseased) and extract instance-wise explanations for the classifier's decisions. The distribution of instances in the explanation space of our diagnostic classifier amplifies the different reasons for belonging to the same class-resulting in a representation that is uniquely useful for discovering latent subtypes. We compare our ability to recover subtypes via cluster analysis on model explanations to classical cluster analysis on the original data. In multiple datasets with known ground-truth subclasses, particularly on UK Biobank brain imaging data and transcriptome data from the Cancer Genome Atlas, we show that cluster analysis on model explanations substantially outperforms the classical approach. While we believe clustering in explanation space to be particularly valuable for inferring disease subtypes, the method is more general and applicable to any kind of sub-type identification.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.003 | 0.013 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.004 | 0.002 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".