Natural history, prognostic factors and patient perceived response to treatment in chronic spontaneous urticaria
Bibliographic record
Abstract
BACKGROUND: Although the diagnosis and management of chronic spontaneous urticaria (CSU) is well documented in the literature, some aspects of the disease remain unclear. We aimed to further describe the natural history, prognostic factors, humanistic burden and uptake of traditional and alternative therapies in patients with CSU. METHODS: This was a prospective, cross-sectional analysis at a single centre. We reviewed patient medical records and conducted a survey in patients with CSU. RESULTS: 72 patients participated in the study with a median duration of CSU of 48 months. 30% of patients had symptoms that resolved in under 2 years with these patients trending towards an older age of onset of CSU (48 ± 17 years). 16% of patients had symptoms lasting 10 years or longer with these patients trending towards a younger age of onset (22 ± 16 years). Patients with a relapsing/remitting disease course (31%) and those with co-existing angioedema (57%) trended towards a longer median duration of CSU (96 and 50 months respectively) and were observed to have a higher proportion of patients reporting CSU duration of 10 years or longer (33% and 25%, p = 0.033 and p = 0.036 respectively). Patients with co-existing autoimmune/thyroid disease (19%) trended towards a shorter median duration of CSU (37 months). 54 patients (75%) reported sleep disturbance and 29 patients (43%) required emergency room visit(s) for symptomatic control. 84% of patients who trialed second generation antihistamines reported a response to treatment, while 73% of patients who trialed omalizumab reported a response to treatment. Patients using alternative medicine such as acupuncture, traditional Chinese medicine and naturopathic medicine had lower reported response rates (20-29%) to treatment. CONCLUSIONS: The natural history of CSU may be longer than previously reported with our study finding a median duration of symptoms of nearly 4 years with one-third of patients reporting a relapsing/remitting disease course. Younger age of onset, a relapsing/remitting disease course and angioedema may predict a longer duration of CSU, whereas older age of onset and co-existing autoimmune/thyroid disease may predict a shorter duration of CSU. Reported symptomatic benefit was higher from guidelines based pharmacologic therapy versus various alternative medicines.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.005 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".