Specific manifestations of knee osteoarthritis predict depression and anxiety years in the future: Vancouver Longitudinal Study of Early Knee Osteoarthritis
Bibliographic record
Abstract
BACKGROUND: To evaluate whether knee osteoarthritis (OA) manifestations predict depression and anxiety using cross-sectional and longitudinal prediction models. METHODS: A population-based cohort (n = 122) with knee pain, aged 40-79, was evaluated at baseline, 3 and 7 years. Baseline predictors were: age decade; sex; BMI ≥ 25; physical exam knee effusion; crepitus; malalignment; quadriceps atrophy; flexion; flexion contracture; Kellgren-Lawrence (KL) x-ray grade (0/1/2/3+); WOMAC pain ≥25; WOMAC stiffness ≥25; self-reported knee swelling; and knee OA diagnosis (no/probable/definite). Depression and anxiety, cutoffs 5+ and 7+ respectively, were measured via the Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale. We fit logistic models at each cycle using multivariable models selected via lowest Akaike's information criterion. RESULTS: Baseline depression model: sex (female OR = 0.27; 0.10, 0.76) and KL grade (KL 1 OR = 4.21; 1.31, 13.48). Three-year depression model: KL grade (KL 1 OR = 18.92; 1.73, 206.25). Seven-year depression model: WOMAC stiffness ≥25 (OR = 3.49; 1.02, 11.94) and flexion contracture ≥1 degree (OR = 0.23; 0.07, 0.81). Baseline anxiety model: knee swelling (OR = 4.11; 1.51, 11.13) and age (50-59 vs. 40-49 OR = 0.31 [0.11, 0.85]; 60-69 OR = 0.07 [0.01, 0.42]). Three-year anxiety model: WOMAC stiffness ≥25 (OR = 5.80; 1.23, 27.29) and KL grade (KL 1 OR = 6.25; 1.04, 37.65). Seven-year anxiety model: sex (female OR = 2.71; 0.87, 8.46). CONCLUSION: Specific knee OA-related manifestations predict depression and anxiety cross-sectionally, 3 years in the future, and for depression, 7 years in the future. This information may prove useful to clinicians in helping to identify patients most at risk of present or future depression and anxiety, thus facilitating preemptive discussions that may help counter that risk.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".