Development under improved infrastructure, productivity and trade policies : evidence for Guinea-Bissau
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Guinea-Bissau has been facing socioeconomic development challenges since it became in the late 1970s.One of these challenges concerns to find a policy option that allows the country to explore its comparative advantages and to reduce poverty.This study uses a dynamic recursive computable general equilibrium model to analysis the long-term effects of three development policies in this extremely poor small country with the agriculturebased economy: trade, productivity, and infrastructure investments.These policies were evaluated in different scenarios.For the trade axis, we have scenario 1 which consists of simulating negative shocks on import tariffs, and scenario 2 representing export taxes reduction.Productivity scenario represents an estimated productivity shock for the selected sectors, while infrastructure investments scenarios is the simulation of new public investments in infrastructure and its funding mechanism.Negative export taxes shocks affected positively the overall output, exports, investment, and real government consumption, while import tariff cuts have opposite effects.Both trade policies increase rural and urban households' income, with stronger impacts for rural poorer ones.Our results suggest the relevance of accumulated wealth in mitigate long-term poverty as it plays an important role in households' consumption.We observe positive impact of productivity shocks and infrastructure investments on the level of economic activity, aggregate productivity, and sectoral spillovers.For the productivity, we found that gains of rural households stemming from increasing production in the agricultural sectors where they find their sources of income.For the infrastructure investments, we find that funding schemes are important in determining these outcomes as they also contribute to increase both urban and rural households' income and consumption.Moreover, although all the evaluated policies show the potential to reduce poverty, it was the productivity policy that provided the best results, because it increased most the households' income and consumption, and further decreased income inequalities.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".