A 32-million year cycle detected in sea-level fluctuations over the last 545 Myr
Why this work is in the frame
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
Spectral analyses of past relative sea-level oscillations as represented by the ages of 57 Phanerozoic (the last 545 Myr) stratigraphic sequence boundaries from the Canadian Arctic show a strong spectral peak at 32 Myr (>99.9% confidence). These findings concur with previous reports of significant cycles with periods of around 30 Myr in various records of fluctuations of sea level, and in potentially related episodes of tectonism, volcanism, climate, and biotic extinctions. Sequence boundaries commonly coincide with stage boundaries based on biostratigraphy, and are correlated with episodes of extinction and times of flood-basalt volcanism. The connection between tectonics and sea-level variations may come from changes in rates of ocean-floor spreading and subduction, intraplate stresses from plate-reorganizations, and pulsations of hotspot volcanism. These coordinated periodic fluctuations in tectonics, sea level and climate may be modulated by cyclical activity in the Earth’s mantle, although some pacing by astronomical cycles is suspected.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it