High Community SARS-CoV-2 Antibody Seroprevalence in a Ski Resort Community, Blaine County, Idaho, US. Preliminary Results
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract Community-level seroprevalence surveys are needed to determine the proportion of the population with previous SARS-CoV-2 infection, a necessary component of COVID-19 disease surveillance. In May, 2020, we conducted a cross-sectional seroprevalence study of IgG antibodies for nucleocapsid of SARS-CoV-2 among the residents of Blaine County, Idaho, a ski resort community with high COVID-19 attack rates in late March and Early April (2.9% for ages 18 and older). Participants were selected from volunteers who registered via a secure web link, using prestratification weighting to the population distribution by age and gender within each ZIP Code. Participants completed a survey reporting their demographics and symptoms; 88% of volunteers who were invited to participate completed data collection survey and had 10 ml of blood drawn. Serology was completed via the Abbott Architect SARS-CoV-2 IgG immunoassay. Primary analyses estimated seroprevalence and 95% credible intervals (CI) using a hierarchical Bayesian framework to account for diagnostic uncertainty. Stratified models were run by age, sex, ZIP Code, ethnicity, employment status, and a priori participant-reported COVID-19 status. Sensitivity analyses to estimate seroprevalence included base models with post-stratification for ethnicity, age, and sex, with or without adjustment for multi-participant households. IgG antibodies to the virus that causes COVID-19 were found among 22.7% (95% CI: 20.1%, 25.5%) of residents of Blaine County. Higher levels of antibodies were found among residents of the City of Ketchum 34.8% (95% CI 29.3%, 40.5%), compared to Hailey 16.8% (95%CI 13.7%, 20.3%) and Sun Valley 19.4% (95% 11.8%, 28.4%). People who self-identified as not believing they had COVID-19 had the lowest prevalence 4.8% (95% CI 2.3%, 8.2%). The range of seroprevalence after correction for potential selection bias was 21.9% to 24.2%. This study suggests more than 80% of SARS-CoV-2 infections were not reported. Although Blaine County had high levels of SARS-CoV-2 infection, the community is not yet near the herd immunity threshold.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".