Policy Forum: Assessing Party Platforms for Fiscal Credibility in the 2019 Federal Election
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Party platforms are important. They signal what matters for political parties and with whom parties are engaging. Platforms can be used to predict government behaviour and are an important tool to hold a government to account. In the 2019 federal election, all the major parties released platform documents outlining an array of policy positions to address short- and medium-term policy challenges. For the first time, all political parties worked with the parliamentary budget officer and released independent costings of their major proposals. The Institute of Fiscal Studies and Democracy (IFSD) at the University of Ottawa provided an assessment of whether the fiscal plan—revenues, spending, and balances—and the economic and fiscal assumptions underlying each platform were realistic, responsible, and transparent. This article describes the approach taken by the IFSD to assess the fiscal credibility of party platforms, what was found, and the potential implications for governing in a minority Parliament and future elections.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.036 | 0.135 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.006 | 0.008 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.004 | 0.002 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.005 | 0.005 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.003 |
| Research integrity | 0.002 | 0.002 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.006 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".