Geopolitical Risk and the Cost of Capital
Why this work is in the frame
A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.
Bibliographic record
Abstract
One of the most fundamental determinants of firm competitiveness is the cost of capital. Existing research has focused on firm- and country-level factors, but largely overlooked a highly salient systemic factor – geopolitical risk. We posit that geopolitical events that elevate investor risk will prompt equity investors to shift their capital away from emerging markets to safer mature markets, raising the cost of equity capital for firms located in emerging economies. Based on a sample of 10,916 observations spanning 18 countries from 1990 to 2015, we find that higher geopolitical risk increases the cost of equity capital, on average. These results are robust to alternative measures for the cost of equity, to a variety of robustness tests, and to the inclusion of an extended range of control variables. We also find that this relationship is moderated by constraints on executive power, the strength of legal and regulatory institutions, a common law legal tradition, and cross-listing in the United States.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it