Epistemic Uncertainty Quantification in State-Space LPV Model Identification Using Bayesian Neural Networks
Why this work is in the frame
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
This letter presents a variational Bayesian inference Neural Network (BNN) approach to quantify uncertainties in matrix function estimation for the state-space linear parameter-varying (LPV) model identification problem using only inputs/outputs data. The proposed method simultaneously estimates states and posteriors of matrix functions given data. In particular, states are estimated by reaching a consensus between an estimator based on past system trajectory and an estimator by recurrent equations of states; posteriors are approximated by minimizing the Kullback-Leibler (KL) divergence between the parameterized posterior distribution and the true posterior of the LPV model parameters. Furthermore, techniques such as transfer learning are explored in this letter to reduce computational cost and prevent convergence failure of Bayesian inference. The proposed data-driven method is validated using experimental data for identification of a control-oriented reactivity controlled compression ignition (RCCI) engine model.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it