A weak‐signal‐assisted procedure for variable selection and statistical inference with an informative subsample
Why this work is in the frame
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Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract This paper is motivated from an HIV‐1 drug resistance study where we encounter three analytical challenges: to analyze data with an informative subsample, to take into account the weak signals, and to detect important signals and also conduct statistical inference. We start with an initial estimation method, which adopts a penalized pairwise conditional likelihood approach for variable selection. This initial estimator incorporates the informative subsample issue. To accounting for the effect of weak signals, we use a key idea of partial ridge regression. We also propose a one‐step estimation method for each of the signal coefficients and then construct confidence intervals accordingly. We apply the proposed method to the Stanford HIV‐1 drug resistance study and compare the results with existing approaches. We also conduct comprehensive simulation studies to demonstrate the superior performance of our proposed method.
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Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.009 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.002 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it