The Effect of Exchange Rate Volatility on Economic Growth: Case of the CEE Countries
Bibliographic record
Abstract
The exchange rate is a key macroeconomic factor that affects international trade and the real economy of each country. The development of international trade creates conditions where volatility comes with the exchange rate. The purpose of this paper is to examine the effect of real effective exchange rate volatility on economic growth in the Central and Eastern European countries. Additionally, the effect, through three channels of influence on economic growth which vary on the measurement of exchange rate volatility, is examined. The study uses annual data for fourteen CEE countries for the period 2002–2018 to examine the nature and extends the impact of such movements on growth. The empirical findings using the fixed effects estimation for panel data reveal that the volatility of the exchange rate has a significant negative effect on real economic growth. The results appear robust with alternative measures of exchange rate volatility such as standard deviation and z-score. This paper suggests that policymakers should adopt different policies to keep the exchange rate stable in order to foster economic growth.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Open science | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one teacher head, not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".