Lifelong Property Price Prediction: A Case Study for the Toronto Real Estate Market
Bibliographic record
Abstract
We present Luce, the first life-long predictive model for automated property valuation. Luce addresses two critical issues of property valuation: the lack of recent sold prices and the sparsity of house data. It is designed to operate on a limited volume of recent house transaction data. As a departure from prior work, Luce organizes the house data in a heterogeneous information network (HIN) where graph nodes are house entities and attributes that are important for house price valuation. We employ a Graph Convolutional Network (GCN) to extract the spatial information from the HIN for house-related data like geographical locations, and then use a Long Short Term Memory (LSTM) network to model the temporal dependencies for house transaction data over time. Unlike prior work, Luce can make effective use of the limited house transactions data in the past few months to update valuation information for all house entities within the HIN. By providing a complete and up-to-date house valuation dataset, Luce thus massively simplifies the downstream valuation task for the targeting properties. We demonstrate the benefit of Luce by applying it to large, real-life datasets obtained from the Toronto real estate market. Extensive experimental results show that Luce not only significantly outperforms prior property valuation methods but also often reaches and sometimes exceeds the valuation accuracy given by independent experts when using the actual realization price as the ground truth.
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How this classification was reachedexpand
Full frame machine prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. The Gemma side is a direct model label for every work in the frame, read from the title-only record. The Codex side is a classifier learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and calibrated to design-weighted sample rates; fields without enough sample support carry no Codex call. Candidate is the union of the two sides; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels.
Distilled classifier scores by category (both heads)
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.000 | 0.002 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.001 | 0.002 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.001 | 0.001 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.002 | 0.001 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from itClassification
machine, unvalidatedMachine predicted; a candidate call from one source (direct Gemma or distilled Codex), not a consensus.
How this classification was reached, model by model and score by score, is at the end of the page under "How this classification was reached".