Asymmetric interdependence between currency markets' volatilities across frequencies and time scales
Why this work is in the frame
A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.
Bibliographic record
Abstract
Abstract We investigate the dynamics of interdependence between realized variances and realized semivariances of six major currencies across frequencies and time scales. The empirical results are derived, first, through constructing daily measures of realized variance and semivariance from a high frequency 5‐min interval data, and second, by fitting wavelet squared coherence and wavelet cohesion measure with time‐varying weights. The realized volatilities of the currencies and their cross‐currency influences are found to increase during the global financial crisis. The realized volatilities of the Euro, Swiss Franc, and British Pound are closely synchronized over the short‐term horizon. However, over the long‐run, the Euro, Swiss Franc, and Japanese Yen lead the realized volatilities of the British Pound, Australian Dollar, and Canadian Dollar. The synchronization structure of positive and negative realized volatilities indicates asymmetric dependence among the currencies across time horizons. We further observe strong positive (negative) cohesion among the realized volatilities over the medium‐ and long‐term horizons. Finally, significant counter cyclical comovements among the currencies are observed over the medium‐ and long‐term horizons. These findings have important implications for foreign exchange portfolio managers.
Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.
Full frame distilled prediction
Teacher imitationNot calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.
Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category
| Category | Codex | Gemma |
|---|---|---|
| Metaresearch | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (narrow) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Meta-epidemiology (broad) | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Bibliometrics | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Science and technology studies | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Scholarly communication | 0.000 | 0.001 |
| Open science | 0.001 | 0.000 |
| Research integrity | 0.000 | 0.000 |
| Insufficient payload (model declined to judge) | 0.000 | 0.000 |
Machine scores (provisional)
The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.
Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.
score_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it