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Record W3049425455 · doi:10.1111/exsy.12621

Visual interpretation of regression error

2020· article· en· W3049425455 on OpenAlex

Why this work is in the frame

A frame that forgets how it found something cannot be audited. These are the routes that admitted this work.

affAt least one author lists a Canadian institution in the pinned OpenAlex snapshot.
fundA Canadian funder is recorded on the work.

Bibliographic record

VenueExpert Systems · 2020
Typearticle
Languageen
FieldComputer Science
TopicExplainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI)
Canadian institutionsDalhousie University
FundersFundação para a Ciência e a TecnologiaCanada Research Chairs
KeywordsComputer scienceMachine learningBlack boxContext (archaeology)Artificial intelligenceVisualizationReliability (semiconductor)RegressionInterpretation (philosophy)Regression analysisPoint (geometry)Data miningData scienceStatistics

Abstract

fetched live from OpenAlex

Abstract Several sophisticated machine learning tools (e.g., ensembles or deep networks) have shown outstanding performance in different regression forecasting tasks. In many real world application domains the numeric predictions of the models drive important and costly decisions. Nevertheless, decision makers frequently require more than a black box model to be able to “trust” the predictions up to the point that they base their decisions on them. In this context, understanding these black boxes has become one of the hot topics in Machine Learning research. This paper proposes a series of visualization tools that explain the relationship between the expected predictive performance of black box regression models and the values of the input variables of any given test case. This type of information thus allows end‐users to correctly assess the risks associated with the use of a model, by showing how concrete values of the predictors may affect the performance of the model. Our illustrations with different real world data sets and learning algorithms provide insights on the type of usage and information these tools bring to both the data analyst and the end‐user. Furthermore, a thorough evaluation of the proposed tools is performed to showcase the reliability of this approach.

Fetched live from OpenAlex and de-inverted. Abstracts are not stored in this database: the inverted indexes are 8.6 GB of the frame’s 9.3 GB of text, and the host has 13 GB free.

Full frame distilled prediction

Teacher imitation

Not calibrated prevalence, not ground truth. Human validation pending. Learned from the 10,348 direct Codex labels and 10,348 direct Gemma labels. Candidate is the union of thresholded teacher heads; consensus is their intersection. These outputs are machine_predicted_unvalidated and are not human labels or direct frontier model labels.

metaresearch head score (Codex)0.000
metaresearch head score (Gemma)0.000
Version: codex-gemma-dda1882f352aValidation status: machine_predicted_unvalidated
Candidate categoriesnone
Consensus categoriesnone
DomainCandidate signal: none · Consensus signal: none
Study designCandidate signal: Simulation or modeling · Consensus signal: none
GenreCandidate signal: Empirical · Consensus signal: none
Teacher disagreement score0.968
Threshold uncertainty score0.351

Codex and Gemma teacher scores by category

CategoryCodexGemma
Metaresearch0.0000.000
Meta-epidemiology (narrow)0.0000.000
Meta-epidemiology (broad)0.0000.000
Bibliometrics0.0000.000
Science and technology studies0.0000.000
Scholarly communication0.0000.000
Open science0.0010.000
Research integrity0.0000.000
Insufficient payload (model declined to judge)0.0000.000

Machine scores (provisional)

The two teacher heads of the student model, read on this work. A score orders the frame for review; it never asserts a category, and the validation status ships verbatim with every row.

Baseline scores from an immature model (maturity gate not passed, 7 training rounds). Scores rank; they never assert a category.

Opus teacher head0.049
GPT teacher head0.332
Teacher spread0.283 · how far apart the two teachers sit on this one work
Validation statusscore_only:v0-immature-baseline · verbatim from the scoring run: score_only means the number may rank works, and no category label ships from it